Part of: Peru Presidential Election Winner

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

15 smart money signals detected, totaling $41,842.

Categories: Politics, Global Elections, World Elections, Elections, Peru, Peru Election

Notable Trades

87% win-rate election bettor

A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is re-entering a No position on this election market as part of a broad 13-market Peru election thesis.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243k across 188 settled markets
They have put $52k across 13 markets in this same Peru election event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
They bought No at 85¢ in a liquid market after previously trading this market heavily, suggesting continued conviction that Álvarez is unlikely to win

$3,411 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% win-rate election trader

A highly profitable political trader with an 87% win rate is making another event-wide bet on the same Peruvian election slate, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off trade.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $242k across 187 settled markets.
They have traded 13 markets tied to this same election event for about $50k total, pointing to a broad Peru election thesis.
This buy adds fresh No exposure at 85¢, a high-confidence position in a liquid market despite recent Yes-side price strength fading.

$1,362 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% win-rate election sharp

A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate is making another sizable cross-market political bet in the same event, adding a fresh No position at 85¢ despite already having extensive profitable history on related markets.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $242k lifetime.
They have traded 67 markets across 31 events, including 13 markets tied to this election event.
Bought No at 85¢, implying they see Carlos Álvarez as less likely than the current 15% Yes price suggests.

$3,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner across 13 markets

A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate is making a fresh $7.3k add-on-style bet against this candidate while expressing the same thesis across 13 related election markets.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243k lifetime across 187 settled bets.
They have put $50.8k across 13 markets in this same Peru election event, pointing to a broad election thesis rather than a one-off punt.
This trade bought No at 81¢, a high-conviction position that says Carlos Álvarez is still overpriced despite already low 19% Yes odds.

$7,282 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% win-rate election sharp

A proven sharp wallet with an 87% win rate is making another event-wide Peru election bet, adding fresh No exposure in a liquid political market after strong cross-market success.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243k across 187 settled markets
They have traded 13 markets in this same Peru election event for $43k total, suggesting a broad event-level thesis
They bought No at 81¢ in a liquid market, a high-confidence favorite price this wallet has repeatedly profited from

$3,227 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner, Peru election thesis

A highly successful serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate is reopening a No position in a major political market, extending a broad multi-market Peru election thesis.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243.6k across 187 settled markets
They have bet 13 markets tied to this same election event, suggesting a broad Peru election view rather than a one-off punt
This is a fresh No entry at 80¢ in a liquid market, showing continued conviction even after previously closing positions here

$2,397 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% win-rate election bettor

A proven sharp political trader with an 87% win rate is expressing a broad Peru election thesis across 13 related markets, and this trade adds fresh NO exposure in a liquid market at 78¢.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $244k lifetime
They have traded 13 markets in this Peru election event for $42k total, showing a broad event-level thesis
Bought No at 78¢, implying they see Carlos Álvarez as less likely than the market’s 23% Yes price suggests

$2,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

92% win-rate election bettor

A 92% win-rate serial cross-market bettor reopened a No position in a major Peru election market at 79¢ after previously trading the same side, making this a credible follow signal despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades across 1,166 markets and has traded 72 related events.
They reopened a No position at 79¢ after previously closing one, showing renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like a sharp political view than a random punt in a thin book.

$2,069 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

87% winner, event-wide thesis

A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is making another event-wide Peru election bet, adding fresh No exposure on Carlos Álvarez at 80¢ after already showing strong multi-market edge across this event.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243k across 187 settled bets
They have traded 13 markets tied to this Peru election event for $43k total, suggesting a broad event-level view rather than a one-off punt
Bought No at 80¢ in a liquid market, implying they still see Álvarez as less likely than the current 21% Yes price suggests

$2,787 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% win-rate event trader

A proven sharp political trader with an 87% win rate is making another event-wide Peru election bet, adding fresh conviction on Carlos Álvarez losing at 83%.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $243.6k across 187 settled markets
They have traded 13 markets in this same Peru election event for $41.5k, suggesting a broader election thesis rather than a one-off punt
They bought No at 83¢, a high-confidence position that Carlos Álvarez does not win despite the market already moving 5.8 points lower today

$1,245 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%