Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

This prediction market tracks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through September 15, 2026. It resolves “No” if the United States carries out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran by the deadline; otherwise, it resolves “Yes.” PolySpotter tracks the market’s live odds and smart money activity, including a five-wallet Yes conviction cluster and additional Yes bets from a serial trader.

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $31,125.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes

Notable Trades

Five-wallet Yes conviction cluster

Five wallets concentrated $17,660 into Yes, with a profitable high-volume bettor and a serial cross-market trader among the participants as odds rose 12.5%.

  • Five wallets bought Yes for $17,660, representing 55% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • The largest buyer is up $217,035 across 548 resolved bets, while another serial trader has a 93% win rate across 72 events.
  • Yes has risen from the traders’ 71–75¢ entries to 80%, confirming strong market momentum and continued position-building.

$17,660 on Yes

Serial trader adds large Yes bet

A serial cross-market trader with 548 resolved bets added an unusually large Yes position in a thinly traded geopolitical market, despite only modest evidence of pricing edge.

  • This trader has placed bets across 246 markets and 136 events, with 548 resolved positions and $216,000 in lifetime profit.
  • The $8,980 purchase was nearly 570% of the market’s recent 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Yes.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing $13,593 Yes position, with entry at 72¢ versus current market odds near 78¢.

$3,056 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Serial trader adds large Yes bet

A serial cross-market trader with 548 resolved bets added an unusually large Yes position in a thinly traded geopolitical market, despite only modest evidence of pricing edge.

  • This trader has placed bets across 246 markets and 136 events, with 548 resolved positions and $216,000 in lifetime profit.
  • The $8,980 purchase was nearly 570% of the market’s recent 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Yes.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing $13,593 Yes position, with entry at 72¢ versus current market odds near 78¢.

$1,429 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Serial trader adds large Yes bet

A serial cross-market trader with 548 resolved bets added an unusually large Yes position in a thinly traded geopolitical market, despite only modest evidence of pricing edge.

  • This trader has placed bets across 246 markets and 136 events, with 548 resolved positions and $216,000 in lifetime profit.
  • The $8,980 purchase was nearly 570% of the market’s recent 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Yes.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing $13,593 Yes position, with entry at 72¢ versus current market odds near 78¢.

$8,980 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0x401e...6fc9 No, $22,507 (53% win rate)
  2. 0x6d9f...9790 Yes, $19,458 (61% win rate)
  3. 0xc851...cd2a No, $11,173 (52% win rate)
  4. 0xc3db...0f98 No, $11,109 (45% win rate)
  5. 0x30c1...9f91 Yes, $6,766 (48% win rate)
  6. 0xfb8f...842b Yes, $5,741 (67% win rate)
  7. 0x9352...2227 Yes, $5,336 (63% win rate)
  8. 0xeb22...808a No, $5,000 (34% win rate)
  9. 0xa9ac...c5d1 Yes, $4,900 (33% win rate)
  10. 0xdf17...97d1 No, $4,500 (56% win rate)

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US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

22dUS-Iran ceasefire continues through...?$31,125 tracked4 signalsIranTrumpIsraelMilitaryPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x IranMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes
Yes
78¢
No
23¢

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
82¢
67¢
51¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

4d ago

$17,660 on Yes at 72¢

72¢78¢6¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

4d ago

$3,056 on Yes at 72¢

72¢78¢6¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

4d ago

$1,429 on Yes at 72¢

72¢78¢6¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

4d ago

$8,980 on Yes at 72¢

72¢78¢6¢

Related Theses