Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

This Polymarket asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, or extension of the halt in direct military engagement by June 30, 2026. Current smart-money alerts tracked by PolySpotter lean toward “No,” with recent signals including an 82% sharp flip to No and winner buying No. The market resolves based on an official qualifying U.S. announcement before the deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

15 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,442.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable wallet with a 72% resolved-bet record is building a $29.5k cross-market thesis on the Iran ceasefire agreement, buying Yes at 65¢.

  • This bettor wins 72% of resolved trades and is up $44k lifetime.
  • They have put $29.5k across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Entry at 65¢ implies they still see value despite the market already pricing Yes near 64%.

$2,154 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

82% winner flips No

A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market activity has flipped from a prior Yes position into No on this Iran agreement market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $531,857 lifetime.
  • They are a serious cross-market trader, with $2.3M deployed across 50 events.
  • They previously held Yes here but closed it and bought No, suggesting a changed view.

$1,980 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

82% sharp flips to No

A highly profitable 82% winner and serial cross-market trader has flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No across a broader Iran-ceasefire thesis.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $531k lifetime.
  • They are a serious cross-market trader, with $187k positioned across 8 markets in this event.
  • They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 33¢, signaling a directional flip.

$1,979 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp bettor flips No

Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with $532k profit is buying No after extensive cross-market positioning on the same Iran event.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $532k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.3M deployed across 50 events.
  • They previously closed a Yes position here and is now buying No at 34¢, suggesting a thesis shift.

$1,020 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

91% winner buying NO

A profitable 91% winner is effectively buying No at 33¢, with corroboration from a 3-wallet shared-funder cluster on the same thesis.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $5,082 lifetime.
  • The trade is effectively a No bet at 33¢ against a currently favored Yes outcome.
  • Three wallets sharing the same funder have put about $2,051 behind this direction.

$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying No while holding a broader 8-market thesis on the same Iran event.

  • This bettor has won 62% of 867 resolved trades and is up about $350K lifetime.
  • They have built a broader $40K position across 8 related markets in this event.
  • No was bought at 31¢ as the market has moved 7.5 points against Yes over the past day.

$1,407 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Cross-market Iran bettor

A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broader cross-market Iran thesis across 12 related markets, though this specific trade is modest in size.

  • This wallet has placed $253K across 12 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • The bettor is up $46K lifetime across more than 400 resolved markets, despite only winning 51% of trades.
  • Selling Yes at 70¢ is equivalent to buying No at 30¢, a small fade of the current 72% Yes market price.

$1,087 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%

Profitable event specialist

A profitable event-focused wallet is re-entering Yes after trading across many related Iran markets, though the single bet is modest and the track record is not elite.

  • This wallet has traded 12 related markets with $253K in exposure, suggesting a broader Iran-ceasefire thesis.
  • The bettor is up $46K lifetime across 413 resolved trades, despite only winning 51% of them.
  • They bought Yes at 71¢ after the market fell 11.5% in a day, implying a dip-buying view.

$1,037 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%

91% winner in funded cluster

Surfaced because a 91% lifetime winner with positive P&L is buying Yes, with added support from a recurring 3-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $5,021 lifetime.
  • The wallet is part of a 3-wallet funded cluster that has been flagged in prior runs.
  • They bought Yes at 71¢ after a 6.5-point daily pullback, suggesting confidence in a rebound.

$1,420 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

82% winner buying No

Proven profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate is buying No while carrying a large cross-market Iran thesis across 8 related markets.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $519K lifetime.
  • They have nearly $100K positioned across 8 related markets, suggesting a broad Iran-event thesis.
  • Buying No at 32¢ follows a sharp 1-day move against Yes and implies about a 3.1x payout if correct.

$2,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $70,372 (82% win rate)
  2. 0x162f...798d Yes, $44,612 (69% win rate)
  3. 0xe541...d45d Yes, $22,222 (45% win rate)
  4. 0x4a41...242a Yes, $13,187 (49% win rate)
  5. 0x6418...730c No, $12,118 (63% win rate)
  6. 0xd426...334a No, $10,213 (41% win rate)
  7. 0x801d...d8e0 Yes, $8,739 (72% win rate)
  8. 0xa9e6...1dc2 Yes, $7,614 (81% win rate)
  9. 0x1597...d74f Yes, $6,290 (50% win rate)
  10. 0xff99...5602 Yes, $6,255 (72% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran closes airspace in June

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran closes airspace soon

Covers 2 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

No US-Iran meeting by June

Covers 14 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

No permanent Iran peace deal

Covers 9 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

28dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$26,442 tracked15 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran
Yes
66¢
No
35¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Price History — “Yes
84¢
73¢
62¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

22h ago

$2,154 on Yes at 65¢

65¢66¢1¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

1d ago

$1,980 on No at 33¢

33¢35¢2¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

1d ago

$1,979 on No at 33¢

33¢35¢2¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

1d ago

$1,020 on No at 34¢

34¢35¢1¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

1d ago

$1,050 on No at 33¢

33¢35¢2¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

1d ago

$1,407 on No at 31¢

31¢35¢4¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

1d ago

$1,087 on No at 30¢

30¢35¢5¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

1d ago

$1,037 on Yes at 71¢

71¢66¢5¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

1d ago

$1,420 on Yes at 71¢

71¢66¢5¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

3d ago

$2,560 on No at 32¢

32¢35¢3¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

4d ago

$2,311 on Yes at 72¢

72¢66¢6¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

4d ago

$3,313 on No at 17¢

17¢35¢18¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

4d ago

$1,902 on No at 20¢

20¢35¢15¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

5d ago

$1,967 on Yes at 79¢

79¢66¢13¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

5d ago

$1,254 on No at 23¢

23¢35¢12¢

Related Theses