Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $163,420.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

81% winner cross-market thesis

Sharp 81% win-rate wallet with $590k lifetime profit is adding bullish exposure as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
  • They are active across 10 related markets in this event, with $218k already positioned.
  • Selling No at 23¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 77¢, aligning with the market’s strong 1-day move.

$1,191 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

81% winner cross-market thesis

Sharp 81% win-rate wallet with $590k lifetime profit is adding bullish exposure as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
  • They are active across 10 related markets in this event, with $218k already positioned.
  • Selling No at 23¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 77¢, aligning with the market’s strong 1-day move.

$1,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Proven cross-market Iran bettor

A proven cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is adding to a broader 7-market Iran ceasefire thesis as odds surge.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $235,788 lifetime.
  • This is part of a 7-market thesis totaling $189,567 on the same event.
  • They bought Yes at 75¢ while the market has surged 43 points in the last day.

$1,201 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Proven cross-market Iran bettor

A proven cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is adding to a broader 7-market Iran ceasefire thesis as odds surge.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $235,788 lifetime.
  • This is part of a 7-market thesis totaling $189,567 on the same event.
  • They bought Yes at 75¢ while the market has surged 43 points in the last day.

$1,050 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

100% cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 49-0 resolved record bought $4.5k of Yes despite already-high odds.

  • This bettor has won 49 of 49 resolved trades and is up about $59.8k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with over $1.0M deployed across 37 events.
  • Buying Yes at 83¢ after a 43.5-point weekly move suggests continued conviction, not a stale signal.

$6,657 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%

100% cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 49-0 resolved record bought $4.5k of Yes despite already-high odds.

  • This bettor has won 49 of 49 resolved trades and is up about $59.8k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with over $1.0M deployed across 37 events.
  • Buying Yes at 83¢ after a 43.5-point weekly move suggests continued conviction, not a stale signal.

$4,464 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%

81% winner cross-market thesis

Sharp 81% win-rate wallet with $590k lifetime profit is adding bullish exposure as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
  • They are active across 10 related markets in this event, with $218k already positioned.
  • Selling No at 23¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 77¢, aligning with the market’s strong 1-day move.

$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Proven cross-market Iran bettor

A proven cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is adding to a broader 7-market Iran ceasefire thesis as odds surge.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $235,788 lifetime.
  • This is part of a 7-market thesis totaling $189,567 on the same event.
  • They bought Yes at 75¢ while the market has surged 43 points in the last day.

$5,353 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Proven cross-market Iran bettor

A proven cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is adding to a broader 7-market Iran ceasefire thesis as odds surge.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $235,788 lifetime.
  • This is part of a 7-market thesis totaling $189,567 on the same event.
  • They bought Yes at 75¢ while the market has surged 43 points in the last day.

$3,766 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Proven cross-market Iran bettor

A proven cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is adding to a broader 7-market Iran ceasefire thesis as odds surge.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $235,788 lifetime.
  • This is part of a 7-market thesis totaling $189,567 on the same event.
  • They bought Yes at 75¢ while the market has surged 43 points in the last day.

$2,468 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 61454986, $71,867 (80% win rate)
  2. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 61454986, $48,960 (70% win rate)
  3. 0x0238...eb0b Outcome 61454986, $20,000 (69% win rate)
  4. 0xa022...77f8 Outcome 61454986, $14,396 (70% win rate)
  5. 0xd426...334a Outcome 61454986, $13,905 (46% win rate)
  6. 0xbb1f...907d Outcome 61454986, $12,853 (100% win rate)
  7. 0xc040...beac Outcome 61454986, $10,495 (50% win rate)
  8. 0x9c98...f4f4 Outcome 61454986, $8,035 (93% win rate)
  9. 0x5666...c630 Outcome 61454986, $7,193 (56% win rate)
  10. 0x77c8...bc8c Outcome 61454986, $6,783 (37% win rate)

Related Theses

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Starmer stays in power

Covers 2 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

ResolvedUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$163,420 tracked50 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x IranPeace Deal

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

33d ago

$1,191 on Yes at 77¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

34d ago

$1,600 on Yes at 77¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

34d ago

$1,201 on Yes at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

34d ago

$1,050 on Yes at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

35d ago

$6,657 on Yes at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

35d ago

$4,464 on Yes at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

35d ago

$1,800 on Yes at 77¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

35d ago

$5,353 on Yes at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

35d ago

$3,766 on Yes at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$2,468 on Yes at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$1,679 on Yes at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$3,944 on Yes at 78¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$1,150 on Yes at 77¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$1,961 on Yes at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$5,913 on Yes at 78¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$10,364 on Yes at 76¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$1,510 on Yes at 68¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$2,264 on No at 34¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$1,941 on Yes at 68¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$1,621 on Yes at 73¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$2,251 on Yes at 75¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$2,092 on Yes at 74¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$7,472 on No at 31¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

36d ago

$22,157 on No at 34¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$4,366 on Yes at 59¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$2,124 on Yes at 64¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$3,460 on Yes at 68¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$2,481 on Yes at 43¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$2,609 on Yes at 67¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$4,561 on Yes at 39¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$2,560 on Yes at 36¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$1,017 on Yes at 34¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$2,964 on No at 64¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$1,148 on No at 64¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$3,344 on Yes at 38¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$3,529 on Yes at 35¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$1,909 on Yes at 33¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$1,229 on No at 65¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$2,433 on No at 68¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$1,876 on Yes at 33¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$1,367 on Yes at 32¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$1,198 on No at 70¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$1,646 on No at 67¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

37d ago

$1,517 on Yes at 40¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

38d ago

$1,061 on Yes at 36¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

38d ago

$1,000 on No at 64¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

38d ago

$1,830 on No at 61¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

38d ago

$10,246 on No at 61¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

38d ago

$3,726 on No at 59¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

38d ago

$2,353 on No at 57¢

Related Theses