Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran diplomatic agreement, peace framework, or extension of a ceasefire commitment by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. Smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter totals $3,421, with recent signals showing sharp and high-win traders buying No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
17 smart money signals detected, totaling $33,464.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet leans Yes
A 2-day-old wallet with repeat large flagged bets and early profits is exiting No exposure, effectively leaning Yes on a geopolitics market.
- This wallet is less than 2 days old but already has 9 positions and is up $1,548.
- It has now triggered 3 large-bet alerts totaling $8,192, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- The trade exits a prior No position, effectively shifting toward Yes at a 63¢ equivalent entry.
$3,421 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Profitable new wallet buying NO
Very new wallet with early profits and repeat large-bet flags is taking a $3.6k No position on a geopolitics market.
- This wallet is under 2 days old but already has 8 positions and is up $1,727.
- It placed a fresh $3,600 bet on No, adding to a repeat pattern of large early trades.
- Entry at 38¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the market’s current 36% No odds.
$3,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable wallet with a 72% resolved-bet record is building a $29.5k cross-market thesis on the Iran ceasefire agreement, buying Yes at 65¢.
- This bettor wins 72% of resolved trades and is up $44k lifetime.
- They have put $29.5k across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 65¢ implies they still see value despite the market already pricing Yes near 64%.
$2,154 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
82% winner flips No
A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market activity has flipped from a prior Yes position into No on this Iran agreement market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $531,857 lifetime.
- They are a serious cross-market trader, with $2.3M deployed across 50 events.
- They previously held Yes here but closed it and bought No, suggesting a changed view.
$1,980 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% sharp flips to No
A highly profitable 82% winner and serial cross-market trader has flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No across a broader Iran-ceasefire thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $531k lifetime.
- They are a serious cross-market trader, with $187k positioned across 8 markets in this event.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 33¢, signaling a directional flip.
$1,979 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor flips No
Sharp 82% lifetime bettor with $532k profit is buying No after extensive cross-market positioning on the same Iran event.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $532k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.3M deployed across 50 events.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and is now buying No at 34¢, suggesting a thesis shift.
$1,020 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
91% winner buying NO
A profitable 91% winner is effectively buying No at 33¢, with corroboration from a 3-wallet shared-funder cluster on the same thesis.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $5,082 lifetime.
- The trade is effectively a No bet at 33¢ against a currently favored Yes outcome.
- Three wallets sharing the same funder have put about $2,051 behind this direction.
$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying No while holding a broader 8-market thesis on the same Iran event.
- This bettor has won 62% of 867 resolved trades and is up about $350K lifetime.
- They have built a broader $40K position across 8 related markets in this event.
- No was bought at 31¢ as the market has moved 7.5 points against Yes over the past day.
$1,407 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Cross-market Iran bettor
A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broader cross-market Iran thesis across 12 related markets, though this specific trade is modest in size.
- This wallet has placed $253K across 12 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The bettor is up $46K lifetime across more than 400 resolved markets, despite only winning 51% of trades.
- Selling Yes at 70¢ is equivalent to buying No at 30¢, a small fade of the current 72% Yes market price.
$1,087 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
Profitable event specialist
A profitable event-focused wallet is re-entering Yes after trading across many related Iran markets, though the single bet is modest and the track record is not elite.
- This wallet has traded 12 related markets with $253K in exposure, suggesting a broader Iran-ceasefire thesis.
- The bettor is up $46K lifetime across 413 resolved trades, despite only winning 51% of them.
- They bought Yes at 71¢ after the market fell 11.5% in a day, implying a dip-buying view.
$1,037 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $70,872 (82% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $44,612 (69% win rate)
- 0xe541...d45d — Yes, $22,222 (45% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — No, $15,763 (41% win rate)
- 0x4a41...242a — Yes, $13,987 (49% win rate)
- 0x6418...730c — No, $12,118 (63% win rate)
- 0x801d...d8e0 — Yes, $9,400 (72% win rate)
- 0xa9e6...1dc2 — Yes, $7,614 (81% win rate)
- 0x1597...d74f — Yes, $6,290 (50% win rate)
- 0xde6f...d004 — No, $5,829 (50% win rate)
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