US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026, with resolution based on whether such a meeting happens by 11:59 PM ET on that date. It covers only authorized, official diplomacy between the two governments, not indirect contacts or informal backchannels. Traders are watching the market as a real-time signal of expectations around US-Iran relations ahead of the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,930.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

74% winner buying NO

A proven high-volume trader with a 74% win rate and 69-event cross-market history is buying No after a sharp one-day move, making this a credible directional signal on a news-driven geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved trades and is up about $216k overall.
  • They have traded 103 markets across 69 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought No at 35¢ after this market dropped 15 points in a day, implying they still saw value even after the move.

$1,364 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

11-wallet funded cluster

An 11-wallet linked cluster is building the same position in a geopolitics market, which is notable despite this wallet's only modest standalone track record.

  • 11 linked wallets funded by the same source are betting the same market, a strong sign of coordinated conviction
  • This is a geopolitics market with over $120k in 24h volume, so the flow is more meaningful than a random thin-market punt
  • This wallet's own record is mixed at 8 wins in 11 resolved bets and roughly flat P&L, so the cluster signal matters more than the individual bettor

$2,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

87% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate bought No at 35¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis worth following despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades and is up about $393k lifetime
  • They have traded 47 related markets across 25 events, suggesting a repeatable macro and politics edge
  • Bought No at 35¢ while the market still prices Yes at 66%, implying they see the meeting as less likely than consensus

$1,749 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

4-wallet Yes cluster

Four wallets put $11.4k on Yes in a meaningful coordinated push on a geopolitics market, with some profitable high-volume traders adding fresh exposure around 66-78¢.

  • Four wallets all bought Yes for $11.4k, a coordinated one-way push on a geopolitics market.
  • Two of the wallets have made over $240k each on Polymarket, suggesting this is not random small-account flow.
  • They paid 66-78¢ while the market now sits near 68¢, so the best copied entry is close to the lowest fills rather than the late 78¢ buy.

$11,391 on Yes

86% win-rate macro bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with an 86% win rate re-entered this geopolitical market at 78¢ before it moved to 88%, making the alert worth surfacing despite only one signal.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 989 markets and has traded over $1.09M across 133 events
  • They bought Yes at 78¢ and the market is now 88¢, so the position moved 10 points in their favor quickly
  • This is a re-entry by a proven event trader in a news-driven geopolitics market, not a random one-off bet

$1,026 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $50,896 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xa771...42d1 No, $21,839 (67% win rate)
  3. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $15,637 (57% win rate)
  4. 0xcf19...6402 Yes, $11,274 (57% win rate)
  5. 0x4a2b...af20 No, $11,000 (37% win rate)
  6. 0xea79...a9cc No, $10,370 (66% win rate)
  7. 0x6e4b...3c6d No, $9,537
  8. 0xbe8c...9e9e No, $9,457 (72% win rate)
  9. 0x61e7...6e8b Yes, $7,723
  10. 0x853c...bd03 No, $6,987 (49% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

9d$17,930 tracked5 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
57¢
No
43¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
90¢
67¢
43¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

1d ago

$1,364 on No at 35¢

35¢43¢8¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

2d ago

$2,400 on Yes at 69¢

69¢57¢12¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

2d ago

$1,749 on No at 35¢

35¢43¢8¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

3d ago

$11,391 on Yes at 66¢

66¢57¢9¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

5d ago

$1,026 on Yes at 78¢

78¢57¢21¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Odds on Polymarket | PolySpotter