Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

This Polymarket market asks whether IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz on any date before July 7, 2026. It covers arrivals of ships including container, dry bulk, ro-ro, general cargo, and tanker vessels, and will resolve as soon as qualifying IMF Portwatch data is published or otherwise at the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $10,951 in smart money activity, with recent signals showing both sharp No buying and repeat whale interest on Yes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,696.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable wallets buying No

Three profitable high-volume wallets bought No together during a 48x volume spike on a geopolitically driven shipping market.

  • Three experienced bettors are all buying No, led by a wallet up $246k with a 73% record across 436 resolved bets.
  • The trade cluster put $11k on the same side within minutes, helping drive a 48x volume spike.
  • This is a real-world shipping/geopolitics market where informed views on Strait of Hormuz traffic could matter.

$10,951 on No

New repeat whale buying YES

A 5-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a geopolitics/shipping market with a wide spread and modest liquidity.

  • This 5-day-old wallet has already made 11 flagged large bets totaling about $25.9K.
  • The wallet is up $6.7K on its first resolved position, though the track record is still very early.
  • A $2K buy at 25¢ on a modest-liquidity market suggests conviction that Hormuz traffic normalizes.

$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

5-day repeat bettor buying Yes

A 5-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profit is adding $3.2k to Yes on a geopolitically sensitive shipping market.

  • This new wallet has already made 12 flagged large bets totaling $27k.
  • The bettor is up $6.7k so far, though only one resolved trade is in the record.
  • Buying Yes at 25¢ suggests they see a potential 4x payout if Hormuz traffic normalizes.

$3,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New repeat whale buying YES

A 5-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a geopolitics/shipping market with a wide spread and modest liquidity.

  • This 5-day-old wallet has already made 11 flagged large bets totaling about $25.9K.
  • The wallet is up $6.7K on its first resolved position, though the track record is still very early.
  • A $2K buy at 25¢ on a modest-liquidity market suggests conviction that Hormuz traffic normalizes.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

95% win-rate sharp buys No

A highly profitable 95% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought No on a thin Strait of Hormuz market.

  • This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $267K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 78 events with the same 95% hit rate, suggesting repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • The $1.3K No buy is meaningful in a small market with only about $6K total volume.

$1,345 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

Top Holders

  1. 0x25db...28de Yes, $76,467 (49% win rate)
  2. 0x0c0e...434e No, $51,228 (64% win rate)
  3. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $44,500 (64% win rate)
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $36,460 (47% win rate)
  5. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $21,307 (69% win rate)
  6. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $20,000 (34% win rate)
  7. 0x3bef...d6e2 Yes, $17,187 (100% win rate)
  8. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $16,800 (82% win rate)
  9. 0x9631...89a1 No, $15,968 (94% win rate)
  10. 0xebab...cff5 No, $11,111 (92% win rate)

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

5dStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$18,696 tracked5 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranStrait of HormuzGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
3¢
No
97¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
99¢
81¢
64¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

5d ago

$10,951 on No at 77¢

77¢97¢20¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

5d ago

$1,200 on Yes at 25¢

25¢3¢22¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

5d ago

$3,200 on Yes at 25¢

25¢3¢22¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

5d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 25¢

25¢3¢22¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

6d ago

$1,345 on No at 87¢

87¢97¢10¢

Related Theses