Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,696.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable wallets buying No
Three profitable high-volume wallets bought No together during a 48x volume spike on a geopolitically driven shipping market.
- Three experienced bettors are all buying No, led by a wallet up $246k with a 73% record across 436 resolved bets.
- The trade cluster put $11k on the same side within minutes, helping drive a 48x volume spike.
- This is a real-world shipping/geopolitics market where informed views on Strait of Hormuz traffic could matter.
$10,951 on No
New repeat whale buying YES
A 5-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a geopolitics/shipping market with a wide spread and modest liquidity.
- This 5-day-old wallet has already made 11 flagged large bets totaling about $25.9K.
- The wallet is up $6.7K on its first resolved position, though the track record is still very early.
- A $2K buy at 25¢ on a modest-liquidity market suggests conviction that Hormuz traffic normalizes.
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
5-day repeat bettor buying Yes
A 5-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profit is adding $3.2k to Yes on a geopolitically sensitive shipping market.
- This new wallet has already made 12 flagged large bets totaling $27k.
- The bettor is up $6.7k so far, though only one resolved trade is in the record.
- Buying Yes at 25¢ suggests they see a potential 4x payout if Hormuz traffic normalizes.
$3,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New repeat whale buying YES
A 5-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits is buying Yes on a geopolitics/shipping market with a wide spread and modest liquidity.
- This 5-day-old wallet has already made 11 flagged large bets totaling about $25.9K.
- The wallet is up $6.7K on its first resolved position, though the track record is still very early.
- A $2K buy at 25¢ on a modest-liquidity market suggests conviction that Hormuz traffic normalizes.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
95% win-rate sharp buys No
A highly profitable 95% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought No on a thin Strait of Hormuz market.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $267K lifetime.
- They have traded across 78 events with the same 95% hit rate, suggesting repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- The $1.3K No buy is meaningful in a small market with only about $6K total volume.
$1,345 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x25db...28de — Outcome 17400918, $104,467 (47% win rate)
- 0xbc8c...273f — Outcome 17400918, $30,000 (74% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 17400918, $26,740 (69% win rate)
- 0x3bef...d6e2 — Outcome 17400918, $17,187 (100% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 17400918, $16,800 (76% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — Outcome 17400918, $12,583 (70% win rate)
- 0xb6c3...cf5c — Outcome 17400918, $8,533
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Outcome 17400918, $8,500 (88% win rate)
- 0x682d...4cd6 — Outcome 17400918, $8,400
- 0x2f45...ab6a — Outcome 17400918, $3,657
Related Theses
Twins beat the Rockies
Covers 1 related market
Berrettini beats Cerundolo
Covers 1 related market
Song Yadong beats Figueiredo
Covers 1 related market
Jovic beats Osaka
Covers 1 related market
Krejcikova beats Linette
Covers 1 related market
Mbappe wins Golden Boot
Covers 1 related market
Zhu Kangjie beats Rodrigo Vera
Covers 1 related market
Yankees will beat Orioles
Covers 1 related market
Anastasia Potapova will win
Covers 1 related market
Dodgers-Rockies game goes over
Covers 1 related market
