Part of: Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
This prediction market asks whether Nigel Farage will receive at least 80% of valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. PolySpotter tracks the latest Yes/No market odds and smart money activity; the market is scheduled to resolve by June 30, 2027, once official results are available.
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $74,707.
Categories: UK, Clacton, Politics, Elections, United Kingdom, UK By-Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Six-wallet funded cluster backs No
Six linked wallets and a consistently active trader are backing No, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the modest position size.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are associated with $1,720 in No exposure on this market.
- The trader has 167 resolved bets, a 65% win rate, and is up $118,662 lifetime.
- No was bought at 86¢, implying the trader viewed an unlikely 80%-plus Farage result as even less likely.
$1,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
New whale scaling into Yes
A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.
- This 1-hour-old wallet has invested about $10,215 in Yes shares and continues adding at 41¢.
- The market has risen 25.5% in one day and 26.5% in one week, supporting the wallet’s bullish direction.
- There is no resolved-position track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the proof of edge.
$25,434 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale scaling into Yes
A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.
- This 1-hour-old wallet has invested about $10,215 in Yes shares and continues adding at 41¢.
- The market has risen 25.5% in one day and 26.5% in one week, supporting the wallet’s bullish direction.
- There is no resolved-position track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the proof of edge.
$27,033 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Proven serial bettor buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 83% win rate and substantial positive edge is taking a contrarian $4,354 position on No.
- This bettor has won 83% of 197 resolved trades and earned about $1.19 million.
- The wallet has traded across 61 events and 85 markets, indicating a repeatable research-driven approach rather than a one-off wager.
- The $4,354 No position at 44¢ goes against the market's recent 40.5% Yes rally, making the contrarian timing notable.
$4,354 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Three-wallet bullish Clacton cluster
Three wallets committed nearly $7.9K to Yes, with the coordinated flow coinciding with a 45.5% one-day price surge despite mixed bettor quality.
- Three wallets aligned on Yes exposure totaling $7,889, including a No sale equivalent to buying Yes around 58¢.
- Yes rose 45.5% in one day and 48.0% over the week, corroborating the concentrated buying.
- One participant is a profitable long-term bettor up $156K, though another is reducing an existing No position and has a losing record.
$7,889 on Yes
New whale scaling into Yes
A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.
- This 1-hour-old wallet has invested about $10,215 in Yes shares and continues adding at 41¢.
- The market has risen 25.5% in one day and 26.5% in one week, supporting the wallet’s bullish direction.
- There is no resolved-position track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the proof of edge.
$4,829 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale scaling into Yes
A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.
- This 1-hour-old wallet has invested about $10,215 in Yes shares and continues adding at 41¢.
- The market has risen 25.5% in one day and 26.5% in one week, supporting the wallet’s bullish direction.
- There is no resolved-position track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the proof of edge.
$2,412 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale scaling into Yes
A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.
- This 1-hour-old wallet has invested about $10,215 in Yes shares and continues adding at 41¢.
- The market has risen 25.5% in one day and 26.5% in one week, supporting the wallet’s bullish direction.
- There is no resolved-position track record yet, so the conviction signal is stronger than the proof of edge.
$1,037 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xe7b3...2b3a — Outcome 72458154, $388,828 (100% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 33995819, $46,097
- 0x4ae7...561f — Outcome 72458154, $13,295
- 0x500a...c8e4 — Outcome 72458154, $8,220
- 0x8c0b...f0fb — Outcome 72458154, $4,369 (74% win rate)
- 0x0414...be21 — Outcome 72458154, $2,523 (54% win rate)
- 0xbc60...af79 — Outcome 72458154, $2,182 (67% win rate)
- 0x215a...254c — Outcome 72458154, $2,018
- 0xe234...304a — Outcome 72458154, $2,000 (66% win rate)
- 0xb760...ccd7 — Outcome 72458154, $1,671 (54% win rate)
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