Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
This Polymarket prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach an official, publicly announced, mutually agreed ceasefire by December 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes if a general halt in military engagement is agreed before the deadline, even if the ceasefire begins later. PolySpotter is tracking $7,985 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent buying on both Yes and No.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $83,142.
Categories: World, Ukraine, Geopolitics, Politics, Foreign Policy, Trump-Zelenskyy, Earn 4%, Ukraine Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Linked new wallet buying YES
A repeat new-wallet bettor from a linked-wallet cluster is taking the Yes side on a major geopolitical market, though the track record is still thin and the position is modest versus market liquidity.
- This new wallet has now been flagged 8 times, with about $16.3K in notable bets.
- Two wallets funded by the same source are betting around the same thesis, totaling about $4.7K flagged.
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 32¢ while the market is now around 26¢.
$1,813 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$6,172
Profitable macro veteran buying Yes
A high-volume veteran trader with a 73% win rate and nearly $600k in profit is taking a fresh Yes position in a major geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 73% of 495 resolved trades and is up about $598k lifetime
- They trade heavily across 340 markets and 256 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Bought Yes at 32¢ in a deep geopolitics market, implying they see the ceasefire odds as meaningfully higher than current pricing
$3,444 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$53,956
75% winner buying No
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a 75% win rate is leaning against a ceasefire at 30¢ amid an unusually large volume spike, and the SELL Yes translates cleanly into buying No.
- This bettor has won 749 of 1003 resolved markets and is up $143k overall
- They trade across many related markets — 166 markets over 80 events — which suggests a repeatable macro thesis rather than a one-off punt
- This sale of Yes at 30¢ is effectively a buy of No at 70¢, and it hit during a 114x volume spike on the market
$1,165 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
4-wallet ceasefire cluster
Four wallets sold Yes at 64¢ in a coordinated burst on a major geopolitics market, and the market quickly moved to 70% No afterward.
- Four wallets hit the same side within minutes, putting $16.6k behind No on a major geopolitics market.
- They sold Yes at 64¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 36¢; the market is now 70% No, so the move was quickly validated.
- This came with a 31x volume spike, suggesting a burst of conviction rather than routine trading.
$16,592 on No
Top Holders
- 0x1a5b...f553 — Outcome 27911616, $439,154
- 0x8d0c...5839 — Outcome 27911616, $391,236 (74% win rate)
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — Outcome 27911616, $345,104 (78% win rate)
- 0x57ee...ba2a — Outcome 27911616, $321,997
- 0x1c37...18de — Outcome 27911616, $275,036
- 0xdfe3...73c4 — Outcome 27911616, $217,830 (65% win rate)
- 0x336c...df32 — Outcome 27911616, $200,001
- 0xa2e6...2da0 — Outcome 27911616, $182,250
- 0x4fd1...4cf1 — Outcome 27911616, $170,973 (83% win rate)
- 0x49ad...f71a — Outcome 27911616, $139,609
Related Theses
Peace deal by mid-May
Covers 5 related markets
