Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
6 signals across 1 market · $83,142 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach an official, mutually agreed ceasefire by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is monitoring $83,142 in smart money activity across the market, including recent signals such as a 75% winner buying No, a 4-wallet ceasefire cluster, and a profitable macro veteran buying Yes.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$53,956Score: 13.5 - 75% winner buying No
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a 75% win rate is leaning against a ceasefire at 30¢ amid an unusually large volume spike, and the SELL Yes translates cleanly into buying No.
$1,165Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 7.5 - 4-wallet ceasefire cluster
Four wallets sold Yes at 64¢ in a coordinated burst on a major geopolitics market, and the market quickly moved to 70% No afterward.
$16,592Score: 6.5 - Linked new wallet buying YES
A repeat new-wallet bettor from a linked-wallet cluster is taking the Yes side on a major geopolitical market, though the track record is still thin and the position is modest versus market liquidity.
$1,813Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 6.0 - Profitable macro veteran buying Yes
A high-volume veteran trader with a 73% win rate and nearly $600k in profit is taking a fresh Yes position in a major geopolitics market.
$3,444Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.0 - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$6,172Score: 1.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x09f800…2689$6,172 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xb1a279…372a$3,444 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x4c681f…6162$1,813 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$1,165 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
FAQs
What are the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026 odds on Polymarket?
The odds reflect the market-implied probability that Russia and Ukraine reach an official general ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026. PolySpotter tracks both the live Polymarket price and smart money activity to show how experienced wallets are positioning.
What counts as a Yes resolution for this market?
The market resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine publicly announce a mutually agreed halt in military engagement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The agreement must represent a general pause in the conflict, not just a limited or local ceasefire.
What is smart money doing on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show mixed positioning: a 75% winner has been buying No, while a profitable macro veteran and a linked new wallet have bought Yes. There is also a 4-wallet ceasefire cluster, suggesting coordinated or related interest in the outcome.
How much smart money has PolySpotter tracked on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $83,142 in smart money activity across this Russia-Ukraine ceasefire event, with 6 smart money signals detected so far.
When does the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement is reached by December 31, 2026. If an official agreement is announced before that deadline, the market can resolve Yes even if the ceasefire starts later.