Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves “Yes” only if there is a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension covering all or a majority of Israeli civilian airspace; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $4,995 in smart money activity across 1 signal, with recent alerts showing smart-money interest on the NO side.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
23 smart money signals detected, totaling $65,074.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
86% winner cross-market bettor
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and $477k profit is adding to a broader No thesis across related Israel airspace markets.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $477k lifetime.
- They have $60.7k positioned across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 89¢ means they are backing a high-conviction view that no major airspace closure happens by July 31.
$4,995 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
86% winner cross-market bettor
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and $477k profit is adding to a broader No thesis across related Israel airspace markets.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $477k lifetime.
- They have $60.7k positioned across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 89¢ means they are backing a high-conviction view that no major airspace closure happens by July 31.
$4,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Proven cross-market bettor
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 78% record is building a cross-market thesis, buying $6k of No here as part of $28.6k across three related markets.
- This bettor has won 78% of 117 resolved trades and is up about $32k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 3 related markets with $28.6k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This trade backs No at 85¢, aligning with the market’s current low odds for an airspace closure.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
87% winner buying NO
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% resolved win rate and $690k lifetime profit is buying No while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $690k lifetime.
- They have placed $52.6k across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $7.5k buy adds conviction to No at 89¢ in a liquid market.
$1,181 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp cross-market NO cluster
Three profitable cross-market bettors are aligned on buying No, including an 87% winner up $692k lifetime and a serial trader with strong event-level history.
- One bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $692k lifetime.
- Three wallets all bought No around 88–89¢, totaling $5.8k in aligned flow.
- These wallets have traded related markets before, including a serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate across 42 events.
$5,795 on No
87% winner buying NO
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% resolved win rate and $690k lifetime profit is buying No while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $690k lifetime.
- They have placed $52.6k across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $7.5k buy adds conviction to No at 89¢ in a liquid market.
$1,495 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Proven cross-market bettor
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 78% record is building a cross-market thesis, buying $6k of No here as part of $28.6k across three related markets.
- This bettor has won 78% of 117 resolved trades and is up about $32k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 3 related markets with $28.6k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This trade backs No at 85¢, aligning with the market’s current low odds for an airspace closure.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
87% winner buying NO
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% resolved win rate and $690k lifetime profit is buying No while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $690k lifetime.
- They have placed $52.6k across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $7.5k buy adds conviction to No at 89¢ in a liquid market.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable sharp buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
- They have been flagged 48 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 86¢ signals confidence Israel does not make a major airspace closure by the deadline.
$2,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
87% winner buying NO
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% resolved win rate and $690k lifetime profit is buying No while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $690k lifetime.
- They have placed $52.6k across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $7.5k buy adds conviction to No at 89¢ in a liquid market.
$1,767 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0x93fb...3e4a — Yes, $97,017 (38% win rate)
- 0xe1e1...d250 — No, $64,109 (100% win rate)
- 0xeb49...693e — No, $34,129 (81% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $34,000 (93% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $32,972 (88% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $27,305 (86% win rate)
- 0xe7cb...d447 — No, $24,990 (70% win rate)
- 0xc15b...38af — No, $20,135 (83% win rate)
- 0xb8d2...c66b — No, $18,518 (75% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — No, $16,776 (87% win rate)
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