Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
39 smart money signals detected, totaling $115,235.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Proven cross-market bettor
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 78% record is building a cross-market thesis, buying $6k of No here as part of $28.6k across three related markets.
- This bettor has won 78% of 117 resolved trades and is up about $32k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 3 related markets with $28.6k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This trade backs No at 85¢, aligning with the market’s current low odds for an airspace closure.
$1,540 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
88% serial cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a broader cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $288,570 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.23M deployed across 56 markets and a strong track record.
- This is part of a broader 5-market event position totaling nearly $20,000.
$1,340 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% serial cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a broader cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $288,570 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.23M deployed across 56 markets and a strong track record.
- This is part of a broader 5-market event position totaling nearly $20,000.
$1,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable sharp buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
- They have been flagged 48 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 86¢ signals confidence Israel does not make a major airspace closure by the deadline.
$6,239 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
88% serial cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a broader cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $288,570 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.23M deployed across 56 markets and a strong track record.
- This is part of a broader 5-market event position totaling nearly $20,000.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable sharp buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
- They have been flagged 48 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 86¢ signals confidence Israel does not make a major airspace closure by the deadline.
$2,537 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable sharp buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
- They have been flagged 48 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 86¢ signals confidence Israel does not make a major airspace closure by the deadline.
$1,290 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
86% winner cross-market bettor
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and $477k profit is adding to a broader No thesis across related Israel airspace markets.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $477k lifetime.
- They have $60.7k positioned across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 89¢ means they are backing a high-conviction view that no major airspace closure happens by July 31.
$2,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
86% winner cross-market bettor
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and $477k profit is adding to a broader No thesis across related Israel airspace markets.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $477k lifetime.
- They have $60.7k positioned across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 89¢ means they are backing a high-conviction view that no major airspace closure happens by July 31.
$1,634 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable sharp buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
- They have been flagged 48 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 86¢ signals confidence Israel does not make a major airspace closure by the deadline.
$3,480 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Top Holders
- 0x57cc...882c — Yes, $103,103 (27% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $97,570 (71% win rate)
- 0x93fb...3e4a — Yes, $42,275 (43% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $27,305 (87% win rate)
- 0xe07a...6adb — Yes, $12,550
- 0xff91...a1ed — Yes, $11,328 (71% win rate)
- 0x6a83...4c59 — Yes, $11,117 (41% win rate)
- 0xf66c...58b9 — Yes, $10,033 (33% win rate)
- 0xddc4...967b — Yes, $10,000
- 0xaacb...90cb — Yes, $9,000 (70% win rate)
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