Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves “Yes” only if there is a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension covering all or a majority of Israeli civilian airspace; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $4,995 in smart money activity across 1 signal, with recent alerts showing smart-money interest on the NO side.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

23 smart money signals detected, totaling $65,074.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

86% winner cross-market bettor

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and $477k profit is adding to a broader No thesis across related Israel airspace markets.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $477k lifetime.
  • They have $60.7k positioned across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Buying No at 89¢ means they are backing a high-conviction view that no major airspace closure happens by July 31.

$4,995 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

86% winner cross-market bettor

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and $477k profit is adding to a broader No thesis across related Israel airspace markets.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $477k lifetime.
  • They have $60.7k positioned across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Buying No at 89¢ means they are backing a high-conviction view that no major airspace closure happens by July 31.

$4,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Proven cross-market bettor

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 78% record is building a cross-market thesis, buying $6k of No here as part of $28.6k across three related markets.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 117 resolved trades and is up about $32k lifetime.
  • They are positioning across 3 related markets with $28.6k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This trade backs No at 85¢, aligning with the market’s current low odds for an airspace closure.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

87% winner buying NO

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% resolved win rate and $690k lifetime profit is buying No while also positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $690k lifetime.
  • They have placed $52.6k across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • This $7.5k buy adds conviction to No at 89¢ in a liquid market.

$1,181 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Sharp cross-market NO cluster

Three profitable cross-market bettors are aligned on buying No, including an 87% winner up $692k lifetime and a serial trader with strong event-level history.

  • One bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $692k lifetime.
  • Three wallets all bought No around 88–89¢, totaling $5.8k in aligned flow.
  • These wallets have traded related markets before, including a serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate across 42 events.

$5,795 on No

87% winner buying NO

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% resolved win rate and $690k lifetime profit is buying No while also positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $690k lifetime.
  • They have placed $52.6k across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • This $7.5k buy adds conviction to No at 89¢ in a liquid market.

$1,495 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven cross-market bettor

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 78% record is building a cross-market thesis, buying $6k of No here as part of $28.6k across three related markets.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 117 resolved trades and is up about $32k lifetime.
  • They are positioning across 3 related markets with $28.6k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This trade backs No at 85¢, aligning with the market’s current low odds for an airspace closure.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

87% winner buying NO

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% resolved win rate and $690k lifetime profit is buying No while also positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $690k lifetime.
  • They have placed $52.6k across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • This $7.5k buy adds conviction to No at 89¢ in a liquid market.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable sharp buying NO

Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
  • They have been flagged 48 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 86¢ signals confidence Israel does not make a major airspace closure by the deadline.

$2,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

87% winner buying NO

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 87% resolved win rate and $690k lifetime profit is buying No while also positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $690k lifetime.
  • They have placed $52.6k across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • This $7.5k buy adds conviction to No at 89¢ in a liquid market.

$1,767 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0x93fb...3e4a Yes, $97,017 (38% win rate)
  2. 0xe1e1...d250 No, $64,109 (100% win rate)
  3. 0xeb49...693e No, $34,735 (81% win rate)
  4. 0x9592...a7b8 Yes, $34,000 (93% win rate)
  5. 0x88c4...129a No, $32,972 (88% win rate)
  6. 0xae7c...487e Yes, $27,305 (86% win rate)
  7. 0xe7cb...d447 No, $24,990 (70% win rate)
  8. 0xc15b...38af No, $20,135 (81% win rate)
  9. 0xb8d2...c66b No, $18,518 (75% win rate)
  10. 0x7f9e...3a0e No, $16,776 (87% win rate)

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Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

28dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$65,074 tracked23 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20
Yes
8¢
No
93¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
94¢
87¢
79¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

16h ago

$4,995 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

20h ago

$4,300 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

21h ago

$3,000 on No at 85¢

85¢93¢8¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2d ago

$1,181 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2d ago

$5,795 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2d ago

$1,495 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2d ago

$2,000 on No at 85¢

85¢93¢8¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

3d ago

$3,000 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

3d ago

$2,580 on No at 86¢

86¢93¢7¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

3d ago

$1,767 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

4d ago

$2,000 on No at 85¢

85¢93¢8¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

4d ago

$1,970 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

5d ago

$1,371 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

5d ago

$3,000 on No at 85¢

85¢93¢8¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

5d ago

$2,014 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

6d ago

$3,314 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

6d ago

$1,146 on No at 87¢

87¢93¢6¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

7d ago

$1,529 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

7d ago

$7,456 on No at 89¢

89¢93¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

7d ago

$1,560 on Yes at 12¢

12¢8¢4¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

8d ago

$1,240 on No at 88¢

88¢93¢5¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

8d ago

$2,361 on No at 87¢

87¢93¢6¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

11d ago

$6,000 on No at 85¢

85¢93¢8¢

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