Part of: Fed Decision in July?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $130,575.
Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Economy, Jerome Powell, Fed, Fed Rates, Politics
Notable Trades
Serial macro whale buying NO
Large NO add from a high-volume serial cross-market trader, backed by a major volume spike and sharp price move toward NO.
- This high-volume bettor is up $251k lifetime across $35.5M invested.
- They bought $59k of No at 87¢, adding to an existing No position now priced around 91¢.
- The market saw a 151x volume spike while No jumped about 20 percentage points.
$59,226 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Macro whale adding No
Large profitable serial macro trader added a $69.8k No position as No rapidly moved up and event volume spiked ahead of the July FOMC meeting.
- This bettor has traded 58 markets across 34 events and is up about $979k lifetime.
- They added nearly $70k to No at 83¢, with an existing No position already on this market.
- No moved sharply higher to 90¢ after the trade as market volume spiked 67x versus its historical average.
$69,782 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Large Fed cross-market bettor
High-score macro alert driven by a large cross-market Fed thesis and a 60x volume spike, though the single trade is modest and the wallet’s standalone track record is limited.
- This wallet is part of a $188k cross-market Fed position, suggesting a broader macro thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- The market saw a 60x volume spike versus its normal pace, with fresh money leaning against a 25 bp hike.
- Entry at 81¢ is a high-confidence bet that the Fed will not raise rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting.
$1,567 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 10297971, $11,030,224
- 0xa309...4cf2 — Outcome 10547381, $613,117 (22% win rate)
- 0x4506...43fd — Outcome 10547381, $321,548
- 0xe033...40a5 — Outcome 10547381, $314,857 (50% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 10547381, $250,000 (43% win rate)
- 0xfd2b...8e50 — Outcome 10547381, $244,357 (56% win rate)
- 0x7523...4c4c — Outcome 10547381, $222,000 (50% win rate)
- 0x0bb8...253e — Outcome 10547381, $174,668
- 0xd52b...5c72 — Outcome 10547381, $162,665 (53% win rate)
- 0x515e...8309 — Outcome 10547381, $160,037 (90% win rate)
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