US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if an authorized, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations takes place by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date; indirect contacts do not count. Recent smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter includes notable buying on No, alongside geopolitical cluster signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
16 smart money signals detected, totaling $96,099.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$12,000 | Wallet win rate: 70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,080
93% win-rate cross-market bettor
A high-win-rate wallet is expressing the same thesis across five related US-Iran markets, adding a repeatable cross-market edge signal even though this individual trade is modest in size.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $8.4k overall
- They have put $19.2k across 5 related US-Iran markets, showing a consistent event-level view
- Bought No at 83¢ while the market was falling, suggesting they still see low odds of a meeting
$1,246 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
9-wallet geopolitical cluster
Nine wallets sold No at 82-83¢ in a $38.6k coordinated move, which converts to buying Yes around 17-18¢, alongside a 32x volume spike and a sharp 1-day price move in a geopolitics market where informed positioning is plausible.
- Nine wallets hit this market in the same window for $38.6k, a strong one-way flow signal.
- Their sells of No at 82-83¢ translate to buying Yes around 17-18¢, right as market volume ran 32x above normal.
- This is a real-world geopolitics market and the price already moved 13.5 points in a day, suggesting traders are repositioning fast.
$38,562 on Yes
85% winner across 12 markets
Proven 85% winner is actively trading across 12 related Iran-event markets, and this sell of No converts to a fresh buy of Yes at 16¢ despite the market still pricing only a small chance.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $422k lifetime.
- They have put nearly $99k across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a coordinated event-level thesis.
- Selling No at 84¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, a cheap entry for a sharp trader's view after the market already fell 11 points today.
$1,680 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Proven event-thesis bettor
A profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 1,313 resolved bets is pressing the same event thesis across six related markets, making this a worthwhile follow despite the single trade size being modest.
- This bettor has 1,313 resolved bets, wins 68% of them, and is up about $238k lifetime
- They have put $13.3k across 6 related markets in this same event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 82¢ in a liquid market, signaling confidence that no official US-Iran meeting happens by May 5
$1,773 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable event specialist
A highly active and profitable geopolitical trader with a $733k track record is making a fresh cross-market bet across this event by buying No at 72¢.
- This bettor has won 68% of 797 resolved trades and is up $732.8k lifetime.
- They have traded 102 markets across 71 related events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-driven markets.
- They bought No at 72¢ in a liquid market, showing a clear directional view rather than a thin-market punt.
$4,308 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable event-thesis trader
A profitable serial event trader is making a fresh cross-market thesis bet across 7 related US-Iran markets, and this trade converts to buying Yes around 31¢.
- This wallet has bet 47 markets across 25 events and is up about $171k overall.
- They built a 7-market position in this same event worth about $56.9k, which points to a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This sell of No at 69¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 31¢, close to the current 30¢ ask.
$3,530 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
73% winner reloading NO
A proven profitable trader with a 73% win rate is re-entering the same No side across a broad 10-market US-Iran event thesis, adding directional value even without other signals.
- This bettor has won 64 of 88 resolved markets and is up money overall.
- They have traded 10 related US-Iran markets for $51k total, showing a sustained event-wide view.
- This is a fresh re-entry into No at 75¢ after previously closing the position, suggesting renewed conviction.
$3,471 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
18-wallet funded cluster
An 18-wallet linked cluster is building the same pro-Yes position in a meaningful geopolitics market, and this wallet already shows early profitability.
- 18 linked wallets share the same funder, which is a strong coordinated conviction signal.
- This wallet is profitable so far, up $8.1k with a 73% win rate across 11 resolved bets.
- Selling No at 70¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 30¢, close to the current 31% market price.
$5,246 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $76,181 (70% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $26,238 (71% win rate)
- 0xe7cb...d447 — Yes, $18,000 (100% win rate)
- 0xbf4d...33ed — No, $14,024 (73% win rate)
- 0xa771...42d1 — No, $13,800 (70% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $13,422 (66% win rate)
- 0x4528...99e2 — No, $13,280 (47% win rate)
- 0xa676...1c22 — Yes, $11,524 (43% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $10,756 (47% win rate)
- 0x75bd...1fea — Yes, $10,439
