Part of: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

This prediction market asks whether Iran will officially announce and begin collecting mandatory fees, tolls, tariffs, or similar charges from commercial vessels passing through or accessing the Strait of Hormuz by October 31, 2026. Live Yes and No odds are displayed on PolySpotter, which also tracks smart money activity and market signals for this contract.

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,775.

Categories: toll, Iran, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Oil

Notable Trades

Serial trader adds to No

A serial cross-market trader with 404 resolved bets added $2,683 to an existing No position in a quiet market, though the historical win rate does not clearly exceed the trader's average winning entry price.

  • This wallet has traded 404 resolved positions across 91 markets and is up $117,935 lifetime.
  • The $2,683 purchase represented 72% of the day's volume, showing meaningful conviction in a relatively quiet market.
  • This is an addition to an existing No position, not a fresh entry; the 75% win rate is solid but not clearly above the wallet's typical 82¢ winning entry price.

$2,683 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial sharp buying Yes

A proven, highly active bettor with an 84% win rate is selling No, effectively buying Yes near the current ask in a long-dated Iran policy market.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 49 resolved trades and is up $126,020.
  • Selling No at 62¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 38¢, signaling a meaningful shift toward Yes.
  • The wallet has traded across 29 events and 49 markets, providing a substantial track record behind the position.

$1,358 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Three-wallet Yes conviction

Three wallets added $8,763 to Yes at 57–67 cents as the market rose 16% in one day, indicating coordinated conviction despite limited evidence of exceptional bettor skill.

  • Three wallets bought $8,763 of Yes, with entries from 57¢ to 67¢ and the market now at 72¢.
  • The buying coincided with a 16% one-day and 19% one-week price increase.
  • One participant has a 71% record and $31,905 profit, though that track record covers only seven resolved bets.

$8,763 on Yes

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a No position on a geopolitical market after recent momentum moved against Yes.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 657 resolved trades and is up about $485k lifetime.
  • They are a repeat cross-market trader across 26 events, with $267k flagged in similar event-positioning activity.
  • They are adding to No at 45¢, and No has already moved toward 50¢ as Yes weakened over the past week.

$4,036 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial event trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% historical win rate is buying Yes on a plausible geopolitical market, though the current stake is modest.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $821K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 75 events and 201 related markets.
  • Buying Yes at 60¢ suggests they see value despite the market falling 13 points over the past week.

$1,935 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0x246b...1196 Yes, $32,069 (79% win rate)
  2. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $20,572 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x8792...4174 No, $20,501 (84% win rate)
  4. 0xcca9...4c9f Yes, $17,197 (67% win rate)
  5. 0xcd71...d127 No, $15,507 (81% win rate)
  6. 0x524d...4495 No, $11,938 (75% win rate)
  7. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $10,508 (64% win rate)
  8. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $10,143 (34% win rate)
  9. 0x6bab...0fe5 No, $9,132 (73% win rate)
  10. 0x96f7...d6ae No, $8,700 (79% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

68dIran charges Hormuz fees by...?$18,775 tracked5 signalstollIranGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzOil
Yes
36¢
No
64¢

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
75¢
64¢
53¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

3d ago

$2,683 on No at 67¢

67¢64¢3¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

10d ago

$1,358 on Yes at 38¢

38¢36¢2¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

19d ago

$8,763 on Yes at 62¢

62¢36¢26¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

41d ago

$4,036 on No at 45¢

45¢64¢19¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

43d ago

$1,935 on Yes at 60¢

60¢36¢24¢

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Iran deal by mid-June
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Hormuz blockade persists
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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