Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether Iran will initiate a general, non-weather-related closure of commercial aviation through Iranian airspace, also known as the Tehran FIR, by August 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,827 in smart money and 1 signal on this market, including a recent alert showing a 78% winner buying NO. The market resolves Yes only if a broad closure applies generally to Iran or the Tehran FIR before the deadline; otherwise it resolves No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,827.

Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close

Notable Trades

78% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet with 78% win rate and +$81k lifetime P&L bought No on a plausible geopolitics market despite only modest signal strength.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $81k lifetime.
  • They bought No at 59¢, and the market has already moved to about 64¢.
  • The market is geopolitics-driven, where informed views can matter more than broad liquidity.

$1,827 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd109...6fa0 No, $3,112 (78% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $3,000 (47% win rate)
  3. 0x122c...fbed Yes, $2,837 (56% win rate)
  4. 0xaf23...aa95 Yes, $1,562 (63% win rate)
  5. 0x9a3f...914a Yes, $1,500 (58% win rate)
  6. 0xfe72...f18c Yes, $1,500 (62% win rate)
  7. 0x54a7...881b No, $1,170 (94% win rate)
  8. 0x746f...566d Yes, $1,000 (55% win rate)
  9. 0x993c...6787 No, $1,000 (40% win rate)
  10. 0x356c...80b7 Yes, $600

Related Theses

US-Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 6 related markets

Blockade lifted in early June

Covers 3 related markets

Iran closes airspace after June 8

Covers 2 related markets

Israel keeps airspace open

Covers 2 related markets

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

60dIran full airspace closure by...?$1,827 tracked1 signalU.S. x IranIsrael x IranIran CeasefireIranclose
Yes
40¢
No
61¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
72¢
59¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

3d ago

$1,827 on No at 59¢

59¢61¢2¢

Related Theses