Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,055.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
A highly profitable, high-volume wallet is building a broader US-Iran thesis across 12 related markets, though this specific Yes buy is small and currently below entry.
- This high-volume bettor is up $1.4M lifetime across $85M traded.
- They have positioned $90K across 12 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- This Yes buy at 6¢ is a cheap tail bet on a diplomatic meeting before June 2026.
$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
Quiet-market No buyer
A single wallet made a meaningful No bet in a very quiet US-Iran diplomacy market days before resolution, though the wallet’s track record is mixed.
- A bettor put $1.9k on No in a market that had only about $312 of prior 24h volume.
- The market resolves in a few days, making this a timely bet that no official US-Iran meeting happens before the deadline.
- The wallet is up about $9.5k lifetime, though its overall hit rate is only 38%.
$1,891 on No | Wallet win rate: 49%
Serial geopolitics bettor
Serial cross-market trader is backing No on a very thin US-Iran diplomacy market while holding a broader $15.5k event thesis, though lifetime P&L is not strong.
- This bettor is active across related markets, with 52 resolved markets and $239k previously deployed across 30 events.
- They have built a broader $15.5k position across 4 markets in this event, suggesting a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This $1.1k buy was over 3.5x the market’s 24h volume, a meaningful move in a very quiet order book.
$1,124 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
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Iran deal by late April
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