Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting by 11:59 PM ET on June 16, 2026. It focuses on direct, authorized diplomacy regarding U.S.-Iran relations, excluding indirect or unofficial contacts. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,891 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,015.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Quiet-market No buyer

A single wallet made a meaningful No bet in a very quiet US-Iran diplomacy market days before resolution, though the wallet’s track record is mixed.

  • A bettor put $1.9k on No in a market that had only about $312 of prior 24h volume.
  • The market resolves in a few days, making this a timely bet that no official US-Iran meeting happens before the deadline.
  • The wallet is up about $9.5k lifetime, though its overall hit rate is only 38%.

$1,891 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%

Serial geopolitics bettor

Serial cross-market trader is backing No on a very thin US-Iran diplomacy market while holding a broader $15.5k event thesis, though lifetime P&L is not strong.

  • This bettor is active across related markets, with 52 resolved markets and $239k previously deployed across 30 events.
  • They have built a broader $15.5k position across 4 markets in this event, suggesting a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This $1.1k buy was over 3.5x the market’s 24h volume, a meaningful move in a very quiet order book.

$1,124 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $33,440 (82% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $20,749 (47% win rate)
  3. 0x5be7...1b1d No, $5,150
  4. 0x11f3...d859 No, $4,948 (69% win rate)
  5. 0xc040...beac Yes, $4,330 (44% win rate)
  6. 0x4214...6c68 Yes, $4,284
  7. 0xaf23...aa95 No, $4,044 (63% win rate)
  8. 0xe738...df65 No, $3,059 (64% win rate)
  9. 0xa0bc...d428 Yes, $3,000
  10. 0x8932...eb14 Yes, $2,003 (93% win rate)

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No US-Iran peace deal

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Iran keeps airspace open

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Blockade lifted in late June

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US-Iran agreement by June

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Project Freedom restarts in June

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Starmer out by 2026

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US secures Iranian enriched uranium

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Russia Ukraine talks will happen

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Israel keeps airspace open

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Trump won't announce Iran ceasefire

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?

1dUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$3,015 tracked2 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
4¢
No
96¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
99¢
85¢
71¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?

2d ago

$1,891 on No at 86¢

86¢96¢10¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?

2d ago

$1,124 on No at 83¢

83¢96¢13¢

Related Theses