Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,055.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
A highly profitable, high-volume wallet is building a broader US-Iran thesis across 12 related markets, though this specific Yes buy is small and currently below entry.
- This high-volume bettor is up $1.4M lifetime across $85M traded.
- They have positioned $90K across 12 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- This Yes buy at 6¢ is a cheap tail bet on a diplomatic meeting before June 2026.
$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%
Quiet-market No buyer
A single wallet made a meaningful No bet in a very quiet US-Iran diplomacy market days before resolution, though the wallet’s track record is mixed.
- A bettor put $1.9k on No in a market that had only about $312 of prior 24h volume.
- The market resolves in a few days, making this a timely bet that no official US-Iran meeting happens before the deadline.
- The wallet is up about $9.5k lifetime, though its overall hit rate is only 38%.
$1,891 on No | Wallet win rate: 49%
Serial geopolitics bettor
Serial cross-market trader is backing No on a very thin US-Iran diplomacy market while holding a broader $15.5k event thesis, though lifetime P&L is not strong.
- This bettor is active across related markets, with 52 resolved markets and $239k previously deployed across 30 events.
- They have built a broader $15.5k position across 4 markets in this event, suggesting a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This $1.1k buy was over 3.5x the market’s 24h volume, a meaningful move in a very quiet order book.
$1,124 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 10958176, $25,000
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 10958176, $16,906 (69% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 10958176, $16,340 (76% win rate)
- 0x28b8...5e00 — Outcome 10958176, $2,000
- 0xa0bc...d428 — Outcome 10958176, $1,934
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 10958176, $786
- 0x91a5...ef2e — Outcome 10958176, $757
- 0x5754...e515 — Outcome 10958176, $505 (56% win rate)
- 0xdef6...7c9f — Outcome 10958176, $500
- 0x2d01...9725 — Outcome 10958176, $400
Related Theses
Keiko Fujimori wins presidency
Covers 2 related markets
Iran closes airspace soon
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by late April
Covers 9 related markets
