Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $60,957.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market trader

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader flipped from Yes to No with a $4.8k buy, and the price has already moved in their favor.

  • This trader has 856 resolved bets, wins 62%, and is up $330k lifetime.
  • They flipped from a prior Yes position into No, buying $4.8k at 80¢.
  • No has already moved to 84¢, suggesting the market is following their direction.

$4,839 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% record is buying No on a geopolitics market that has already moved sharply toward No.

  • This bettor has won 69% of 319 resolved trades and is up $21.6K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 42 events and $196.7K in tracked bets.
  • The market has moved toward No, with Yes down 9.5 points today and 17.5 points this week.

$3,299 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Proven bettor flips to No

Surface due to sharp-wallet override: a 75% lifetime winner with positive P&L is buying No and positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 301 bets and is up $18.3K lifetime.
  • They moved into No at 67¢ after previously closing a small Yes position, suggesting a changed view.
  • They have $2.4K positioned across related markets while Yes has jumped 15 points in 24 hours.

$1,170 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

77% winning bettor

Surface because a profitable wallet with a 77% resolved-bet win rate is buying Yes on a geopolitics market despite only modest trade size.

  • This bettor has won 17 of 22 resolved bets and is up $2.3k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 39¢, implying they see meaningful upside if Israel airspace-closure risk rises.
  • The market is already moving, with Yes up 11.5 points today and $141k traded in 24 hours.

$1,026 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Perfect-record bettor buys No

Sharp-wallet override: despite a weak price-impact signal, this wallet is 14-0 on resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and bought No at 82¢.

  • This bettor has won 100% of their 14 resolved bets and is up $13K lifetime.
  • They bought $1.24K of No at 82¢, adding to a move against an Israel airspace closure.
  • The market has heavy recent volume, so this is notable because the wallet’s track record is the main signal.

$1,240 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

94% winner exits No

Elite 94% winner closed a profitable No position, which is more of a risk-off signal than a fresh Yes bet but still worth surfacing given the wallet quality.

  • This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $77K lifetime.
  • They sold out of a profitable No position after entering around 63¢ and exiting at 76¢.
  • This is not a fresh long Yes bet, but a sharp trader reducing No exposure is still notable.

$2,418 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

94% winner buys NO

Highly proven wallet with a 94% win rate and strong lifetime profit bought $2,000 of No, reinforced by a long serial cross-market track record.

  • This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $76.6K lifetime.
  • They have repeated edge across 33 events, with 739 resolved positions at strong average odds.
  • The $2,000 buy at 63¢ implies confidence Israel will not close its airspace by May 31.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable 82% winner buys No

Surfaced despite a weak price-impact signal because the buyer has an 82% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up about $2,000 lifetime.
  • They bought No at 63¢, close to the current 62¢ market price.
  • The market has active volume, so the main signal is the bettor’s track record rather than trade size.

$2,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable serial event trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader with 45 resolved bets is taking a $9.8k No position against recent Yes momentum on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 67% of resolved trades and is up about $201k lifetime.
  • They are a heavy serial event trader, with $2.8M deployed across 84 markets.
  • The $9.8k No buy is fading a market where Yes has climbed 12.5% over the past week.

$9,784 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable sharp buying Yes

Profitable 79% win-rate wallet made a sizable Yes buy that helped trigger a major breakout, though the market has since fallen below their entry.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $14.9k lifetime.
  • They put $8.6k on Yes, about a quarter of listed liquidity.
  • The buy helped push Yes beyond its prior 15–35¢ range, though current odds are now below their 73¢ entry.

$8,641 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 10070242, $19,445 (72% win rate)
  2. 0xd005...f2c5 Outcome 10070242, $13,276 (50% win rate)
  3. 0x152f...c7e7 Outcome 10070242, $10,055
  4. 0x1348...87da Outcome 10070242, $9,710
  5. 0x3e59...b2be Outcome 10070242, $9,494
  6. 0xc99e...43ea Outcome 10070242, $6,993
  7. 0xd31b...cc50 Outcome 10070242, $6,965
  8. 0xd654...dd72 Outcome 10070242, $6,668
  9. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 10070242, $5,806 (86% win rate)
  10. 0xdf90...41f0 Outcome 10070242, $4,718 (50% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 10 related markets

Iran agreement lands May 27

Covers 6 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 6 related markets

Crude stays below $115

Covers 5 related markets

Iran airspace closure unlikely

Covers 6 related markets

Peace deal around mid-June

Covers 9 related markets

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

ResolvedIsrael closes its airspace by...?$60,957 tracked18 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

37d ago

$4,839 on No at 80¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

39d ago

$3,299 on No at 84¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

39d ago

$1,170 on No at 67¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

40d ago

$1,026 on Yes at 39¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

41d ago

$1,240 on No at 82¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

41d ago

$2,418 on Yes at 24¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

43d ago

$2,000 on No at 63¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

43d ago

$2,900 on No at 63¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

44d ago

$9,784 on No at 62¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

44d ago

$8,641 on Yes at 73¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

44d ago

$6,641 on Yes at 38¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

47d ago

$2,000 on No at 69¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

51d ago

$5,730 on No at 74¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

52d ago

$1,161 on No at 75¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

52d ago

$4,400 on No at 76¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

53d ago

$1,319 on No at 71¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

55d ago

$1,000 on No at 79¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

55d ago

$1,388 on No at 88¢

Related Theses