Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by May 31, resolving “Yes” only for a broad closure affecting all or most commercial aviation. PolySpotter is tracking $5,730 in smart money activity, with recent alerts showing high win-rate traders buying “No.” The market is tied to Israel-Iran geopolitical risk and resolves based on whether a qualifying airspace closure occurs by the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,998.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
79% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with a 79% record and +21% edge bought $5.7k of No despite only a modest signal score.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $14.9k lifetime.
- They put $5.7k on No at 74¢, adding a meaningful bet to a moderately liquid market.
- Their past bets beat implied odds by 21 percentage points, suggesting real edge rather than luck.
$5,730 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
91% winner buys NO
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate and $777k profit bought No on an Israel airspace closure market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $777k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 36 events and $1.58M of detected positioning.
- Buying No at 75¢ suggests confidence that an airspace closure will not happen by the deadline.
$1,161 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% win-rate macro bettor
Serial cross-market bettor with a 91% resolved win rate and $777k profit bought No for $4.4k, making the wallet track record the main signal despite a moderate alert score.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $777k lifetime.
- They have traded 52 related markets across 36 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 76¢ on No implies a steady conviction that a major airspace closure will not happen by the deadline.
$4,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Serial cross-market winner buys NO
A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate is fading the airspace-closure spike by buying No, though the bet size is moderate.
- This bettor has won 86% of 1,083 resolved bets and is up about $53K overall.
- They trade across many related markets, with 139 events and over $1.1M in tracked cross-market volume.
- They bought No at 71¢ after Yes jumped, and the position has already moved to 76¢.
$1,319 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
91% winner buys NO
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate bought No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market, though the stake is modest.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $769k lifetime.
- They have traded across 31 events and 46 markets, with $1.45M total deployed.
- Buying No at 79¢ shows confidence that Israel will not trigger a major airspace closure by the deadline.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
91% winner buys NO
Proven 91% winner with large lifetime profits is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the position is modest and currently available below their entry.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved bets and is up $765K lifetime.
- They have traded across 44 related markets with $1.4M in total volume, suggesting a repeatable event-trading edge.
- They bought No at 88¢, while the market is now around 82¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp’s price.
$1,388 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $39,004 (91% win rate)
- 0xacbc...7cc3 — Yes, $25,221 (22% win rate)
- 0xc15b...38af — No, $25,000
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $18,138 (48% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $12,019 (66% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — Yes, $10,278 (62% win rate)
- 0x2974...9c23 — No, $9,537 (95% win rate)
- 0x83d6...984c — No, $7,726 (79% win rate)
- 0x2779...239a — No, $6,586 (58% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $5,597 (86% win rate)
