Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
18 smart money signals detected, totaling $60,957.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader flipped from Yes to No with a $4.8k buy, and the price has already moved in their favor.
- This trader has 856 resolved bets, wins 62%, and is up $330k lifetime.
- They flipped from a prior Yes position into No, buying $4.8k at 80¢.
- No has already moved to 84¢, suggesting the market is following their direction.
$4,839 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% record is buying No on a geopolitics market that has already moved sharply toward No.
- This bettor has won 69% of 319 resolved trades and is up $21.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 42 events and $196.7K in tracked bets.
- The market has moved toward No, with Yes down 9.5 points today and 17.5 points this week.
$3,299 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Proven bettor flips to No
Surface due to sharp-wallet override: a 75% lifetime winner with positive P&L is buying No and positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 301 bets and is up $18.3K lifetime.
- They moved into No at 67¢ after previously closing a small Yes position, suggesting a changed view.
- They have $2.4K positioned across related markets while Yes has jumped 15 points in 24 hours.
$1,170 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
77% winning bettor
Surface because a profitable wallet with a 77% resolved-bet win rate is buying Yes on a geopolitics market despite only modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 17 of 22 resolved bets and is up $2.3k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 39¢, implying they see meaningful upside if Israel airspace-closure risk rises.
- The market is already moving, with Yes up 11.5 points today and $141k traded in 24 hours.
$1,026 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Perfect-record bettor buys No
Sharp-wallet override: despite a weak price-impact signal, this wallet is 14-0 on resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and bought No at 82¢.
- This bettor has won 100% of their 14 resolved bets and is up $13K lifetime.
- They bought $1.24K of No at 82¢, adding to a move against an Israel airspace closure.
- The market has heavy recent volume, so this is notable because the wallet’s track record is the main signal.
$1,240 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
94% winner exits No
Elite 94% winner closed a profitable No position, which is more of a risk-off signal than a fresh Yes bet but still worth surfacing given the wallet quality.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $77K lifetime.
- They sold out of a profitable No position after entering around 63¢ and exiting at 76¢.
- This is not a fresh long Yes bet, but a sharp trader reducing No exposure is still notable.
$2,418 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% winner buys NO
Highly proven wallet with a 94% win rate and strong lifetime profit bought $2,000 of No, reinforced by a long serial cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $76.6K lifetime.
- They have repeated edge across 33 events, with 739 resolved positions at strong average odds.
- The $2,000 buy at 63¢ implies confidence Israel will not close its airspace by May 31.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable 82% winner buys No
Surfaced despite a weak price-impact signal because the buyer has an 82% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up about $2,000 lifetime.
- They bought No at 63¢, close to the current 62¢ market price.
- The market has active volume, so the main signal is the bettor’s track record rather than trade size.
$2,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with 45 resolved bets is taking a $9.8k No position against recent Yes momentum on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 67% of resolved trades and is up about $201k lifetime.
- They are a heavy serial event trader, with $2.8M deployed across 84 markets.
- The $9.8k No buy is fading a market where Yes has climbed 12.5% over the past week.
$9,784 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable sharp buying Yes
Profitable 79% win-rate wallet made a sizable Yes buy that helped trigger a major breakout, though the market has since fallen below their entry.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $14.9k lifetime.
- They put $8.6k on Yes, about a quarter of listed liquidity.
- The buy helped push Yes beyond its prior 15–35¢ range, though current odds are now below their 73¢ entry.
$8,641 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 10070242, $19,445 (72% win rate)
- 0xd005...f2c5 — Outcome 10070242, $13,276 (50% win rate)
- 0x152f...c7e7 — Outcome 10070242, $10,055
- 0x1348...87da — Outcome 10070242, $9,710
- 0x3e59...b2be — Outcome 10070242, $9,494
- 0xc99e...43ea — Outcome 10070242, $6,993
- 0xd31b...cc50 — Outcome 10070242, $6,965
- 0xd654...dd72 — Outcome 10070242, $6,668
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 10070242, $5,806 (86% win rate)
- 0xdf90...41f0 — Outcome 10070242, $4,718 (50% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran ceasefire will hold
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Iran agreement lands May 27
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Crude stays below $115
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Iran airspace closure unlikely
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Peace deal around mid-June
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