Part of: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by May 31, 2026. It resolves based on the ISW map: if any part of the station icon is shaded red by the deadline, the market resolves “Yes”; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is currently tracking $4,970 in smart money activity across 2 signals for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,970.

Categories: Ukraine, Politics, World, Geopolitics, Russia Capture, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market war bettor

Profitable serial cross-market bettor is buying No on a thin Ukraine-war market while also positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor has a long track record across 149 events and is up $212K lifetime.
  • They have $29K positioned across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This $1.97K buy was larger than the market’s entire 24h volume, in a market with under $1K liquidity.

$1,970 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

13-0 bettor buying NO

A 13-0 profitable wallet made a meaningful $3k NO bet on a thin Ukraine-war market and has related cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor has won all 13 resolved trades and is up about $13k lifetime.
  • The $3k NO buy was over half of the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a thin market.
  • They have $8k positioned across two related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x15af...9e32 Yes, $5,246
  2. 0x5666...c630 Yes, $4,528
  3. 0xbfba...7567 No, $3,340 (100% win rate)
  4. 0xd44e...67e2 No, $2,375 (61% win rate)
  5. 0xa0bc...d428 Yes, $2,200
  6. 0x7776...1e8c Yes, $1,574
  7. 0x8fa0...72d6 No, $1,400
  8. 0xd054...7e38 No, $1,055 (78% win rate)
  9. 0xedc1...0a06 Yes, $914
  10. 0xce83...5b97 No, $885

Related Theses

Covers 8 related markets

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

16dWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?$4,970 tracked2 signalsUkrainePoliticsWorldGeopoliticsRussia CaptureUkraine Map
Yes
16¢
No
85¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Price History — “No
90¢
84¢
78¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

7d ago

$1,970 on No at 83¢

83¢85¢2¢

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

12d ago

$3,000 on No at 90¢

90¢85¢5¢

Related Theses