Part of: JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether JD Vance, acting as a U.S. representative, will physically attend and actively participate in an official diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $3,891 in smart-money activity and 1 signal, including a recent move from a perfect-record political bettor flipping to No.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,041.
Categories: Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
New wallet flips to No
A very new repeat large bettor flipped from Yes to No on a politically sensitive market amid a sharp Yes selloff, though the wallet has no resolved track record yet.
- This 6-day-old wallet has now been flagged 4 times for large bets, totaling $6.9k.
- The bettor closed a prior Yes position and moved into No as Yes dropped 23.5% in a day.
- Entry around 69¢ on No suggests they are backing the recent move rather than taking a small hedge.
$3,891 on No
Profitable sharp buying breakout
Profitable 76% lifetime bettor bought Yes into a major price breakout on a politically informed market.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved bets and is up $81k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 86¢ as the market broke sharply higher, with Yes up 74 points this week.
- Entry near 86¢ suggests conviction despite already-high odds.
$2,414 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Perfect-record political bettor
Surface because this is a proven profitable wallet with a 13-0 resolved record taking a contrarian Yes position on a political market.
- This bettor has won 13 of 13 resolved trades and is up $15.8K lifetime.
- Selling No at 89¢ is the same as buying Yes around 11¢, against a market that has drifted down this week.
- The bet was large for recent activity, equal to about two-thirds of reported 24h volume.
$1,736 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x199d...6e7b — Outcome 74811788, $5,200 (80% win rate)
- 0x98a7...df9e — Outcome 74811788, $5,000
- 0x079b...bdd2 — Outcome 74811788, $2,586
- 0x3c59...1766 — Outcome 74811788, $1,829 (72% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 74811788, $1,554 (93% win rate)
- 0xf73f...ee53 — Outcome 74811788, $1,459 (61% win rate)
- 0xee67...67a6 — Outcome 74811788, $1,408
- 0x91d5...8a03 — Outcome 74811788, $1,330
- 0x4935...dfda — Outcome 96256282, $1,261
- 0x1437...acfe — Outcome 74811788, $1,130
Related Theses
No Iran peace deal by July
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No Iran deal by June
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No May meeting, early June talks
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Hormuz blockade lifted in July
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US-Iran deal by mid-June
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Blockade lifted in early June
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Vance meets Iran in June
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Iran closes airspace after June 8
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Israel keeps airspace open
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