Part of: JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether JD Vance, acting as a U.S. representative, will physically attend and actively participate in an official diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $3,891 in smart-money activity and 1 signal, including a recent move from a perfect-record political bettor flipping to No.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,041.

Categories: Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

New wallet flips to No

A very new repeat large bettor flipped from Yes to No on a politically sensitive market amid a sharp Yes selloff, though the wallet has no resolved track record yet.

  • This 6-day-old wallet has now been flagged 4 times for large bets, totaling $6.9k.
  • The bettor closed a prior Yes position and moved into No as Yes dropped 23.5% in a day.
  • Entry around 69¢ on No suggests they are backing the recent move rather than taking a small hedge.

$3,891 on No

Profitable sharp buying breakout

Profitable 76% lifetime bettor bought Yes into a major price breakout on a politically informed market.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved bets and is up $81k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 86¢ as the market broke sharply higher, with Yes up 74 points this week.
  • Entry near 86¢ suggests conviction despite already-high odds.

$2,414 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Perfect-record political bettor

Surface because this is a proven profitable wallet with a 13-0 resolved record taking a contrarian Yes position on a political market.

  • This bettor has won 13 of 13 resolved trades and is up $15.8K lifetime.
  • Selling No at 89¢ is the same as buying Yes around 11¢, against a market that has drifted down this week.
  • The bet was large for recent activity, equal to about two-thirds of reported 24h volume.

$1,736 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x199d...6e7b Outcome 74811788, $5,200 (80% win rate)
  2. 0x98a7...df9e Outcome 74811788, $5,000
  3. 0x079b...bdd2 Outcome 74811788, $2,586
  4. 0x3c59...1766 Outcome 74811788, $1,829 (72% win rate)
  5. 0x9592...a7b8 Outcome 74811788, $1,554 (93% win rate)
  6. 0xf73f...ee53 Outcome 74811788, $1,459 (61% win rate)
  7. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 74811788, $1,408
  8. 0x91d5...8a03 Outcome 74811788, $1,330
  9. 0x4935...dfda Outcome 96256282, $1,261
  10. 0x1437...acfe Outcome 74811788, $1,130

Related Theses

No Iran peace deal by July

Covers 6 related markets

No Iran deal by June

Covers 8 related markets

No May meeting, early June talks

Covers 4 related markets

Hormuz blockade lifted in July

Covers 6 related markets

US-Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 6 related markets

Blockade lifted in early June

Covers 3 related markets

Vance meets Iran in June

Covers 2 related markets

Iran closes airspace after June 8

Covers 2 related markets

Israel keeps airspace open

Covers 2 related markets

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedJD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?$8,041 tracked3 signalsIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranPoliticsGeopoliticsIran Ceasefire

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

12d ago

$3,891 on No at 69¢

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

15d ago

$2,414 on Yes at 86¢

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

23d ago

$1,736 on Yes at 11¢

Related Theses