Part of: Peru Presidential Election Winner
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
This market tracks the Polymarket odds for whether Keiko Fujimori will win Peru’s 2026 presidential election, scheduled for April 12, 2026, including any potential second round. PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,480 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market. The market resolves based on credible reporting of the election winner, with a listed resolution date of June 7, 2026 and a fallback to “Other” if results are not definitively known by October 31, 2026.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $270,854.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, World Elections, Elections, Peru, Peru Election, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Sharp cross-market election bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% resolved win rate is expressing a broader pro-Fujimori Peru election thesis across 5 related markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $58.7K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 5 related Peru election markets with $22.1K in total exposure.
- Selling No at 26¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 74¢, reinforcing a pro-Fujimori view.
$2,288 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a cross-market Peru election thesis by selling the 74¢ favorite.
- This bettor has won 73% of 1,035 resolved bets and is up $64k lifetime.
- They have placed $13.4k across 3 related election markets, suggesting a broader Peru-election thesis.
- Selling Yes at 74¢ converts to buying No at 26¢ against a heavily priced favorite.
$1,480 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable cross-market political bettor
Profitable high-volume bettor is taking a contrarian cross-market stance against Fujimori after positioning across three related Peru election markets.
- This bettor has won 73% of 1,035 resolved trades and is up $64k lifetime.
- They have put $14k across three related Peru election markets, suggesting a broader political thesis.
- Selling Yes at 74¢ converts to buying No at 26¢ against the current market favorite.
$3,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
81% winner fades favorite
Proven profitable wallet with an 81% resolved win rate is taking a fresh No position while positioning across five related Peru election markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $58.7K lifetime.
- They have placed $22K across five related Peru election markets, suggesting a broader election thesis.
- Buying No at 25¢ goes against the 74% favorite and offers roughly 4x payout if Fujimori loses.
$2,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
New profitable repeat bettor
A 16-day-old repeat large bettor is adding a $15.6k Yes position on a liquid Peru election market after showing early profitability across prior positions.
- This 16-day-old wallet has already made 5 flagged large bets totaling $26k and is up $887 so far.
- They put $15.6k on Yes at 76¢, showing meaningful conviction in a major political market.
- The market has moved 5 points higher this week, so this bet aligns with recent momentum.
$15,605 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Emerging sharp contrarian
Emerging profitable wallet is taking a contrarian No position as part of a $17k cross-market Peru election thesis, despite the alert's low composite score.
- This bettor is 9-for-9 on resolved trades and is up $46k lifetime.
- They have built a $17k thesis across 3 related Peru election markets.
- Buying No at 24¢ is a contrarian bet against the current 76% favorite.
$1,458 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial trader
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long cross-market track record is buying Fujimori Yes, though the individual bet is modest in a liquid market.
- This bettor is up $208K lifetime with 727 wins across 1,086 resolved trades.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 128 events with $668K tracked in similar positioning.
- Entry at 76¢ suggests they are backing Fujimori despite a small 1-day pullback.
$1,070 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying No on a major political market, with substantial broader positioning across the same election event.
- This bettor is up $97K lifetime across $426K invested, despite only winning 56% of resolved bets.
- They have a repeat cross-market pattern across 26 events and have put $61.7K into this election event.
- Buying No at 25¢ is a contrarian position against the 74% favorite.
$1,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large 1,066-bet history is buying Keiko Fujimori Yes at 75¢ as part of a broader election-positioning pattern.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,066 resolved bets and is up $218,858 lifetime.
- They repeatedly trade across related markets, with 59 events and $1.7M in tracked cross-market volume.
- Buying Yes at 75¢ shows conviction despite Keiko already being the clear market favorite.
$4,498 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial election trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $97k lifetime profit built a net Yes position at 24–25¢ before the market showed 76¢.
- This bettor is up $97k lifetime and has traded $287k across 26 events.
- They built a net Yes position around 24–25¢, far below the current 76¢ market price.
- The trade is less clean because they also bought some No, but their larger exposure is still Yes.
$9,475 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,679,072
- 0xdc03...804c — Yes, $306,488 (80% win rate)
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $167,011 (85% win rate)
- 0xc436...47a2 — Yes, $158,900
- 0xcf60...47ce — Yes, $138,014 (54% win rate)
- 0x3e5b...073b — No, $100,000 (88% win rate)
- 0x7664...2e50 — Yes, $87,717 (76% win rate)
- 0x37d3...709a — No, $84,317 (56% win rate)
- 0x7765...ccb8 — Yes, $72,284
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $70,001 (67% win rate)
Related Theses
Keiko Fujimori wins presidency
Covers 4 related markets
Keiko Fujimori wins presidency
Covers 3 related markets
Iran deal by late April
Covers 9 related markets
Iran deal lands in May
Covers 9 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 6 related markets
