Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
This Polymarket asks whether Keiko Fujimori will win Peru's 2026 presidential election, including any required second round. The election is scheduled for April 12, 2026, and the market is set to resolve based on the winning candidate, with a resolution date listed as June 7, 2026. PolySpotter also tracks $3,300 in smart money activity on this market, including recent anti-Fujimori and NO-side wallet clusters.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $437,606.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, World Elections, Elections, Peru, Peru Election
Notable Trades
Profitable election specialist
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with 1,017 resolved bets and $225k profit is adding a fresh $3.3k Yes position in a major Peru election market after a strong recent move.
- This bettor has 1,017 resolved trades, wins 66% of them, and is up $225k overall
- They trade across many related events and markets — 28 events and 34 markets tracked for $694k total
- Bought Yes at 66¢ after this market jumped 34 points in a week, showing they still see value despite the run-up
$3,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
87% winner buys NO
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is making a fresh cross-market election bet by effectively buying No at 35¢ on a candidate trading at 66%, which is notable despite the market being liquid.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $278k across 193 settled bets.
- They have traded 14 markets in this same election event for $122k total, showing a broad Peru election thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- Selling Yes at 65¢ is equivalent to buying No at 35¢, implying they think the market is overpricing Fujimori.
$13,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% win-rate election trader
A proven 87% win-rate trader is making a fresh cross-market political bet by effectively buying No on Keiko at 35¢ after extensive profitable activity across this election event.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $275k across 193 settled markets.
- They have traded 14 markets in this same Peru election event for $109k total, suggesting a broader election thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This sale of Yes at 65¢ is equivalent to buying No at 35¢, a relatively cheap entry against a candidate after a 34-point weekly market run-up.
$3,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% win-rate election trader
A proven 87% win-rate trader is taking a fresh cross-market stance against Fujimori after building a large 14-market Peru election thesis, making this worth surfacing despite the market's deep liquidity.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $275k across 193 settled bets.
- They have built a 14-market position across this Peru election event, with $108k deployed on the broader thesis.
- This trade sold Yes at 65¢, which translates to buying No around 35¢.
$3,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% win-rate election bettor
A proven 87% win-rate trader is actively expressing a broad Peru election thesis across 14 related markets, and this trade translates to buying No on Fujimori at 34¢.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $275k across 193 settled markets.
- They have put $116.6k across 14 Peru election markets, suggesting a coordinated event-level view rather than a one-off trade.
- This sale of Yes at 66¢ is equivalent to buying No at 34¢, a relatively cheap entry if their broader Peru thesis is right.
$11,880 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Sharp cross-market political bettor
A high-volume cross-market political trader with an 80% hit rate is taking a contrarian NO position in a fast-moving Peru election market after building a broader event thesis across four related markets.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades across 209 bets and is trading across 4 Peru election markets
- They bought No at 36¢ while this market has surged 31.5 points over the past week, suggesting a broader contrarian thesis
- The signal covers $60k of event-wide positioning, even though this specific fill was only $1.1k
$1,080 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
83% winner across event
A highly profitable 83% win-rate trader with over $300k P&L is taking a fresh Yes position in this Peru election market as momentum has accelerated across related markets.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $304k on nearly $2.9M invested.
- They have traded 7 markets tied to this election event for $218.7k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This is a fresh Yes position at 64¢ after earlier positions were closed, with the market already up 32 points over the last week.
$1,328 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Repeat new-wallet whale
A repeat new-wallet whale sold Fujimori Yes into a sharp rally, and on a binary market that translates to buying No at 36¢ with sizable conviction across related Peru election markets.
- This 24-day-old wallet has already made 28 large flagged bets totaling $214k and is up about $9.3k.
- They sold $42.2k of Yes at 64¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 36¢ with a large single-market position.
- The wallet is active across 3 related Peru election markets while this market has already jumped 33 points in a week, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a random trade.
$42,240 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
80% winner fades favorite
A high-win-rate wallet is making a sizable cross-market political bet against the favorite, suggesting a broader event-level thesis worth watching.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved markets across 209 bets, which makes their political positioning worth tracking.
- They bought nearly $14.7k of No at 35¢ against a candidate trading at 64%, a clear contrarian stance.
- This wallet has put $71.3k across 3 related markets in the same election event, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
$14,689 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
87% win-rate election trader
A highly profitable 87% win-rate wallet is actively trading across many Peru election markets and just sold Keiko at 65¢, which converts to a copyable BUY No at 35¢.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $273k across nearly $3.1M invested.
- They have traded 14 markets in this same election event for $106k total, suggesting a broad Peru election thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This sale at 65¢ converts to buying No around 35¢, a relatively cheap entry against a contract that has surged 36 points in a week.
$3,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,319,728
- 0xdc03...804c — Yes, $367,960 (82% win rate)
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $167,011 (63% win rate)
- 0xcf60...47ce — Yes, $144,827 (43% win rate)
- 0x3e5b...073b — No, $118,917 (89% win rate)
- 0x682d...31ab — No, $76,272 (80% win rate)
- 0x7765...ccb8 — Yes, $71,013
- 0x69e7...d3b0 — Yes, $69,395 (53% win rate)
- 0x7664...2e50 — Yes, $59,458 (67% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $50,000 (66% win rate)
