Part of: Peru Presidential Election Winner
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
This prediction market tracks whether Keiko Fujimori will win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election, scheduled for April 12, 2026, including any potential second round. The market resolves based on the winner reported by a consensus of credible sources, with a fallback to “Other” if results are not definitive by October 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,100 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $309,382.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, World Elections, Elections, Peru, Peru Election, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Profitable serial election trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large long-term track record is fading Fujimori via a $3.1k Yes sale, equivalent to buying No at 38¢.
- This bettor wins 67% of resolved trades and is up $295k lifetime across more than 1,000 bets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.18M deployed across 48 events and 68 markets.
- Selling Yes at 62¢ is equivalent to buying No at 38¢, despite Fujimori still being priced as the favorite.
$3,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial political trader
A highly experienced and profitable cross-market trader is fading Fujimori via a $6k Yes sale, equivalent to buying No at 37¢.
- This bettor has a long track record: 650 resolved bets, 67% winners, and about $269k in profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 79 events with nearly $4.8M in detected activity.
- This trade fades the current favorite, effectively buying No at 37¢ while the market prices Fujimori near 62%.
$5,981 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable politics whale fades Yes
A highly profitable, high-volume political trader is taking the other side of Fujimori despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor is up $294K lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved bets.
- They are selling Yes at 63¢, which converts to buying No at 37¢.
- The same wallet has $3.7K of related positioning across this election event.
$1,890 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Serial cross-market winner
Experienced cross-market trader with a 71% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a liquid Peru election market.
- This bettor has won 71% of 322 resolved bets and is up about $27.9K lifetime.
- They are a very experienced cross-market trader, with activity across 744 markets and $1.1M invested.
- Buying Yes at 63¢ suggests confidence despite the market drifting down 3% over the past week.
$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable Peru cross-market bettor
Profitable wallet with a 73% long-run hit rate is expressing a cross-market Peru election thesis by selling Keiko Fujimori at 64%.
- This bettor has won 73% of 1,001 resolved trades and is up about $62.7K lifetime.
- They have placed $15.4K across 3 markets in the same Peru election event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling Yes at 64¢ converts to buying No at 36¢, implying they think Keiko is overpriced.
$6,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Cross-market Peru election bettor
A high-activity political bettor is rebuilding a pro-Keiko position as part of a $72.5k cross-market Peru election thesis, though their lifetime P&L is negative.
- This wallet has placed $72.5k across 4 related election markets, showing a broader Peru election thesis.
- The trade is effectively buying Keiko Yes at 65¢, after previously backing Yes with $96.7k at much lower prices.
- The bettor wins 81% of resolved trades, though their lifetime P&L is negative.
$4,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Cross-market 81% bettor
A high-win-rate wallet is rebuilding a Yes position while carrying a $73.6k cross-market thesis across the same election event.
- This bettor has won 81% of resolved trades across 219 outcomes.
- They have $73.6k positioned across 4 related election markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 65¢ after previously entering this market around 21¢.
$5,250 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable cross-market election bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader is taking the No side against Fujimori across a broader Peru election thesis, though the signal is moderate because the market is liquid and price action is muted.
- This bettor is up about $199k lifetime and has traded across 51 markets in 26 events.
- They have $37k positioned across 3 markets in this same election event.
- Selling Yes at 65¢ maps to buying No at 35¢, betting Fujimori is overpriced at current odds.
$6,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Serial cross-market trader buying NO
Profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying No on Keiko after $34k of related event positioning, though this single trade is modest.
- This bettor has made $199k across 136 resolved bets and regularly trades linked political markets.
- They have $34k positioned across 3 related Peru election markets, suggesting a broader thesis against this outcome.
- Selling Yes at 64¢ is equivalent to buying No at 36¢, implying they see Keiko below the market’s 64% odds.
$3,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Sharp cross-market election bettor
A profitable 81% win-rate wallet is building a cross-market thesis across five related Peruvian election markets, though the individual trade size is modest for this liquid market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $42.6K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 5 related election markets with $18K total exposure.
- This is fresh Yes buying at 65¢ after previously closing positions on both sides.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,458,777
- 0xdc03...804c — Yes, $278,922 (81% win rate)
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $167,011 (63% win rate)
- 0xcf60...47ce — Yes, $144,827 (46% win rate)
- 0xc436...47a2 — Yes, $138,562
- 0x3e5b...073b — No, $117,593 (88% win rate)
- 0x7664...2e50 — Yes, $76,297 (73% win rate)
- 0x7765...ccb8 — Yes, $71,013
- 0xf2f6...5817 — Yes, $57,310 (75% win rate)
- 0x22e4...ef1c — Yes, $49,694 (57% win rate)
