Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

28 smart money signals detected, totaling $277,047.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable high-volume event trader bought Yes during a major volume spike and rapid price move, with related positioning across multiple markets.

This bettor has 930 resolved trades, wins 59%, and is up $32K lifetime.
Yes surged 19 points in 3 minutes while volume ran 25x above normal.
They are active across 4 related markets here and have traded 36 similar events.

$2,639 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes amid a major volume spike and 34-point price move, suggesting informed momentum on Iran airspace closure.

This bettor is up $1.18M lifetime across 946 resolved bets.
They have traded 57 related events and are positioning across 5 markets in this event.
Yes volume surged 25.9x while the price jumped 34 points, and they entered at 85¢.

$3,917 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Serial cross-market winner

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate bought Yes amid a major volume spike and sharp price move.

This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up about $248k lifetime.
They have traded across 46 events and are positioning in 4 related markets on this event.
Yes has surged 84 points in 24h with a 26x volume spike, matching the trader’s direction.

$1,083 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding Yes exposure amid a major volume spike and sharp price move on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.

This bettor has a long record: 1,091 resolved trades and $268,889 in lifetime profit.
They have traded 7 related markets in this event with $154,516 at stake, suggesting a broader thesis.
The market has surged 70 percentage points in 24 hours on unusually heavy volume.

$1,708 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Million-profit cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes amid a major volume spike and sharp price move on a geopolitics market.

This bettor is up $1.18M lifetime across 946 resolved trades.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $147K positioned across 5 related markets in this event.
Yes jumped from their 63¢ entry to 73¢ as volume spiked 14x, suggesting strong momentum.

$2,740 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable serial event trader

A highly experienced profitable wallet is effectively buying Yes into a major volume surge and sharp price move on a plausible news-driven market.

This bettor has won 70% of 1,191 resolved bets and is up about $260K lifetime.
They are effectively buying Yes as market volume spiked 14x and Yes jumped about 70 points in a day.
The market is news-sensitive and near deadline, making informed geopolitical positioning more plausible.

$2,634 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

$3.1M sharp buying No

Elite 88% winning wallet with $3.1M profit is buying No, alongside a 13-wallet one-sided cluster and major cross-market activity.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $3.1M lifetime.
13 wallets are all buying No, totaling $41.8k, with 2 wallets sharing a funder.
The same sharp wallet has traded 6 related markets with $201.6k in exposure.

$7,316 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

13-wallet No cluster

High-score alert driven by 13-wallet one-sided No flow, a repeat new-wallet bettor, volume spike, and rapid price impact on a geopolitically sensitive market.

13 wallets are all buying No, totaling $41.8K in one-sided flow.
This 5-day-old wallet has now been flagged 9 times with $22.1K in notable bets.
Market volume is spiking 14.5x while the price moved sharply, suggesting fast-moving informed positioning.

$1,381 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Sharp trader joins Yes surge

Surfacing because a highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet sold No into a massive one-sided Yes surge backed by 32 wallets and a 43.6x volume spike.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $715k lifetime.
32 wallets are all pushing the same direction, with $143k on Yes-linked exposure.
Market volume is up 43.6x and Yes has jumped 55 points in 24 hours.

$9,501 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

32-wallet Yes surge

High-conviction Yes flow: a 3-day-old repeat large bettor joined a 32-wallet one-sided surge with linked funding, heavy volume, and sharp upward price movement.

32 wallets bought the same Yes side for $143k, with 10 wallets sharing a funder.
This 3-day-old wallet put $13.7k into Yes and has already been flagged 11 times for large bets.
Market activity exploded to 43.6x normal volume as Yes jumped sharply today.

$13,710 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%

Top Holders

0xdb38...3118 — Outcome 95751902, $383,515
0x66a2...5577 — Outcome 95751902, $201,000
0xf2b6...80b9 — Outcome 95751902, $112,433 (70% win rate)
0x28aa...8f75 — Outcome 95751902, $102,700 (66% win rate)
0x1e29...740f — Outcome 95751902, $100,000
0xe877...8dec — Outcome 95751902, $85,097 (72% win rate)
0x0652...9134 — Outcome 95751902, $80,000 (70% win rate)
0xef7a...db70 — Outcome 95751902, $79,959 (78% win rate)
0x33a9...9e97 — Outcome 95751902, $62,715
0x88c4...129a — Outcome 95751902, $60,745 (90% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran airspace closure unlikely

Covers 6 related markets

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

ResolvedIran closes its airspace by...?$277,047 tracked28 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.