Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will initiate a major, non-weather-related closure of its airspace by June 8, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $54,855 in smart money activity across 9 signals, with recent alerts showing coordinated Yes momentum, sharp wallets buying Yes, and whale one-sided flow. The market resolves Yes only if the closure broadly affects commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iran or a major Iranian airspace region before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $265,350.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
Sharp trader joins Yes surge
Surfacing because a highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet sold No into a massive one-sided Yes surge backed by 32 wallets and a 43.6x volume spike.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $715k lifetime.
- 32 wallets are all pushing the same direction, with $143k on Yes-linked exposure.
- Market volume is up 43.6x and Yes has jumped 55 points in 24 hours.
$9,501 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
32-wallet Yes surge
High-conviction Yes flow: a 3-day-old repeat large bettor joined a 32-wallet one-sided surge with linked funding, heavy volume, and sharp upward price movement.
- 32 wallets bought the same Yes side for $143k, with 10 wallets sharing a funder.
- This 3-day-old wallet put $13.7k into Yes and has already been flagged 11 times for large bets.
- Market activity exploded to 43.6x normal volume as Yes jumped sharply today.
$13,710 on Yes
Million-dollar sharp joins linked surge
A profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes amid a 32-wallet linked one-sided surge, major volume spike, and rapid price move upward.
- This bettor is up $1.2M lifetime across 945 resolved bets and has traded 57 related events.
- 32 wallets are all buying the same side, totaling $143.6K, with linked funding behind part of the flow.
- The market saw a 43.6x volume spike and Yes jumped 19 points in under 3 minutes.
$5,555 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
82% winner joins No wave
Elite 82% lifetime winner bought No alongside 17-wallet one-sided flow during a major volume and price move.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $713K lifetime.
- 17 wallets bought the same No side, totaling nearly $50K in one-sided flow.
- The wallet bought No at 34¢ before it moved to about 62¢, showing strong early timing.
$3,845 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable bettor fading spike
High-scoring alert with a profitable cross-market bettor buying No alongside 17-wallet one-sided flow after a major volume spike and rapid price move.
- This bettor has won 70% of 71 resolved bets and is up $292K lifetime.
- 17 wallets bought No in the same window, totaling nearly $50K of one-sided flow.
- The market saw a 28x volume spike and a sharp price move, suggesting this is a high-conviction fade of the airspace-closure surge.
$12,158 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial trader fading Yes
High-scoring No buy from a profitable serial cross-market trader, reinforced by 17-wallet one-sided flow and a sharp market move.
- This bettor has a long track record: 70% wins across 1,191 resolved bets and +$259k lifetime profit.
- 17 wallets bought the same No side for nearly $50k, showing broad one-sided conviction.
- The No entry was at 40¢ and the market has already moved hard toward No, now around 62¢.
$1,005 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Sharp wallet fading Yes spike
A profitable 76% win-rate wallet is fading a sharp Yes rally by selling Yes, aligned with a 6-wallet one-sided No cluster.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $2,744 lifetime.
- Six wallets are all leaning the same way, totaling $8,323 on No.
- The trade fades a big Yes rally, effectively entering No around 39¢.
$1,036 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp No bettor in 7-wallet flow
Surface because a proven 90% winner joined a 7-wallet No cluster, even though the market has since moved sharply against the entry.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $6.3K lifetime.
- Seven wallets bought No in the same window, totaling $12.5K of one-sided flow.
- No is now around 35¢, well below this bettor’s 58¢ entry.
$1,047 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
New whale joins Yes cluster
Brand-new wallet is aggressively buying Yes alongside 7-wallet one-sided flow as the market surges on heavy volume before the June 8 resolution.
- A brand-new wallet put $21.4k on Yes within minutes, including a fresh buy at 70¢.
- Seven wallets are all buying the same side, totaling $44.1k in Yes flow.
- The market has jumped 65 percentage points in 24 hours with a 12x volume spike.
$21,397 on Yes
7-wallet Yes surge
Coordinated Yes buying across 7 wallets, a 12.4x volume spike, and a sharp one-day price move make this geopolitical market worth surfacing despite this wallet’s weak lifetime P&L.
- Seven wallets bought the same Yes side for $44K, showing coordinated conviction.
- Market volume jumped 12.4x and Yes is up about 65 points in one day.
- This trade entered at 74¢, while the market has pulled back near 68¢.
$1,190 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0xd576...d5e3 — Yes, $77,589 (56% win rate)
- 0xd104...acef — Yes, $58,379
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $44,452 (95% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $38,664 (63% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $36,749 (88% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $35,554 (59% win rate)
- 0xd902...cdb9 — Yes, $31,134 (63% win rate)
- 0x8d4b...07cb — Yes, $30,000 (44% win rate)
- 0xf0d5...c665 — No, $29,100 (88% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $26,331 (62% win rate)
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