Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether IMF Portwatch will report at least 60 Strait of Hormuz ship arrivals on any single day by July 31, 2026. The market covers finalized daily transit calls for container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, with PolySpotter tracking $1,441 in smart money activity and recent NO-side whale signals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,300.

Categories: Trump, Hormuz, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

98% winner buying NO

Profitable high-win-rate wallet is making an $8.6k No bet while also positioning across related markets, with recent price action strongly favoring No.

  • This bettor has won 55 of 56 resolved bets and is up about $52.8k lifetime.
  • They put $8.6k on No and have $10.7k positioned across related markets.
  • The market has moved sharply toward No, with Yes down 53.5 points over the past week.

$1,441 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

New repeat whale buying NO

A 3-day-old wallet with five repeat large-bet flags is taking a fresh $2.9k NO position in a relatively small shipping market.

  • This wallet is only 3 days old but has already made 5 flagged large bets totaling $15.1k.
  • The $2.9k NO buy is large for a market with only $7.7k liquidity.
  • Entry at 35¢ implies they see the market’s 64% YES price as too high.

$2,860 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x49e9...8f85 No, $18,100 (97% win rate)
  2. 0xdb45...b5d6 Yes, $15,828 (38% win rate)
  3. 0xfdb5...6be1 Yes, $9,050 (100% win rate)
  4. 0xe4de...c949 No, $8,236
  5. 0x7eaa...fd24 No, $5,361
  6. 0x25db...28de Yes, $4,236 (48% win rate)
  7. 0xe154...0b7f Yes, $3,920 (10% win rate)
  8. 0x22e4...ef1c No, $3,479 (58% win rate)
  9. 0xe8c5...7a13 Yes, $2,856 (87% win rate)
  10. 0x03f7...c0cc Yes, $2,600

Related Theses

No Iran deal by June

Covers 2 related markets

France or Spain win Cup

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal in June

Covers 3 related markets

Messi wins Golden Ball

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Haaland wins Golden Boot

Covers 1 related market

Iran talks won't be extended

Covers 1 related market

Mojtaba stays out of public

Covers 2 related markets

No US-Iran talks by July

Covers 2 related markets

No ceasefire by July 24

Covers 1 related market

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

12dWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?$4,300 tracked2 signalsTrumpHormuzIranStrait of HormuzOilGeopolitics
Yes
2¢
No
98¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
100¢
93¢
87¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

6d ago

$1,441 on No at 85¢

85¢98¢13¢

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

19d ago

$2,860 on No at 35¢

35¢98¢63¢

Related Theses