Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
This Polymarket market asks whether a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through November 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The provided metadata does not include current Yes/No odds; PolySpotter tracks $1,357 in smart money across one signal, without specifying its direction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,391.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Israel Election
Notable Trades
Serial trader scaling event exposure
A serial trader added $9.2k to an existing Yes position amid a 45x volume spike and has accumulated substantial exposure across 11 markets tied to the event.
- This trader has taken positions across 11 markets tied to the same event, with $187k in total exposure.
- They added $9,172 to an existing Yes position as market volume spiked to 45 times its historical average.
- The wallet has a long track record and is up $595k, though its 66% win rate is below its average winning entry price of 81¢.
$9,172 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Repeat event trader adding to No
The wallet is adding to a sizable No position amid a 45x volume spike and repeated trading across seven markets in the same event, though its win rate does not clearly beat the odds it typically pays.
- The wallet already has $16,542 in No and added another $1,242 at 33¢.
- It has traded across seven markets tied to this event, with about $49,000 in activity.
- Volume is 45 times its historical average, though the wallet’s 80% win rate alone does not establish an edge at its typical prices.
$1,242 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Three-wallet Yes buyers amid volume spike
Three wallets added roughly $12.2K to Yes within a minute, alongside a 38x volume spike, though the traders already held positions.
- Three wallets bought Yes within about a minute, adding $12,198 to an existing bullish position.
- The trades coincided with a 38x spike in market volume; Yes was priced at 68¢.
- One wallet has won 77% of 47 resolved bets, though the other two have more mixed records.
$12,198 on Yes
Profitable 76% serial cross-market bettor
A proven, profitable bettor with a 76% win rate made a concentrated $10.9K Yes position and has a substantial cross-market track record.
- This bettor has won 76% of 155 resolved positions and is up $285K on $3.29M invested.
- They placed four Yes buys totaling about $10.9K and have traded across 74 events.
- The market is currently at 66%, below several of their entry prices, so the position has moved against them so far.
$10,872 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Repeat event trader adding to Yes
The wallet is adding to a substantial Yes position and has traded across five markets in this event, though its 47% win rate does not establish a clear edge.
- The bettor added $11,438 to an existing Yes position averaging 71¢, with about $43,000 already open.
- The wallet has positioned across five markets in this event, totaling $36,814 across current and prior activity.
- Its 47% win rate across 1,350 resolved bets offers little evidence of a reliable edge on its own.
$2,556 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 47%
Repeat event trader adding to Yes
The wallet is adding to a substantial Yes position and has traded across five markets in this event, though its 47% win rate does not establish a clear edge.
- The bettor added $11,438 to an existing Yes position averaging 71¢, with about $43,000 already open.
- The wallet has positioned across five markets in this event, totaling $36,814 across current and prior activity.
- Its 47% win rate across 1,350 resolved bets offers little evidence of a reliable edge on its own.
$1,320 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 47%
Repeat event trader adding to Yes
The wallet is adding to a substantial Yes position and has traded across five markets in this event, though its 47% win rate does not establish a clear edge.
- The bettor added $11,438 to an existing Yes position averaging 71¢, with about $43,000 already open.
- The wallet has positioned across five markets in this event, totaling $36,814 across current and prior activity.
- Its 47% win rate across 1,350 resolved bets offers little evidence of a reliable edge on its own.
$11,438 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 47%
7-wallet cluster, broad event positioning
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster is taking a Yes position, alongside substantial serial positioning across 15 markets in the same event.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, with $1,357 in this alert.
- The trader has positioned across 15 markets in the event, representing $209,440 in activity.
- This wallet has 282 resolved bets and is up $182,287, though its 66% win rate is not clearly above its average winning entry price.
$1,235 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
7-wallet cluster, broad event positioning
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster is taking a Yes position, alongside substantial serial positioning across 15 markets in the same event.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, with $1,357 in this alert.
- The trader has positioned across 15 markets in the event, representing $209,440 in activity.
- This wallet has 282 resolved bets and is up $182,287, though its 66% win rate is not clearly above its average winning entry price.
$1,357 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0x62cf...5826 — Yes, $43,202 (65% win rate)
- 0x3403...9906 — No, $20,000
- 0xbf96...9942 — No, $19,263 (80% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $14,013 (66% win rate)
- 0xd46b...5dab — Yes, $10,294 (52% win rate)
- 0x36da...907b — Yes, $8,670 (74% win rate)
- 0x524d...4495 — Yes, $8,168 (77% win rate)
- 0x3908...2b2c — No, $7,287
- 0x9baa...b2f9 — No, $7,234 (75% win rate)
- 0x85fa...d2c6 — No, $6,420
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