Part of: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

This prediction market tracks whether Iran will officially announce and begin collecting mandatory fees, tolls, tariffs, or similar charges from commercial vessels for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,394 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market, with resolution based on whether a qualifying policy is both announced and put into collection before the deadline.

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,827.

Categories: toll, Iran, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market winner

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.

  • This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
  • They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
  • They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.

$1,394 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Proven cross-market winner

Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $852K lifetime.
  • They have traded 194 markets across 71 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 53¢ implies they see the current Hormuz-fee risk as overstated.

$2,025 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable cross-market regular

A profitable high-volume cross-market trader is adding to a No position on a geopolitical market, but the signal is moderate rather than a clear sharp-wallet edge.

  • This trader is up about $1.0M lifetime across more than $55M invested.
  • They have traded 130 markets across 71 events, showing a repeated cross-market thesis pattern.
  • They are adding to an existing No position while the market sits near 53¢.

$4,066 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Proven cross-market winner

Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $852K lifetime.
  • They have traded 194 markets across 71 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 53¢ implies they see the current Hormuz-fee risk as overstated.

$2,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven cross-market winner

Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $852K lifetime.
  • They have traded 194 markets across 71 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 53¢ implies they see the current Hormuz-fee risk as overstated.

$3,173 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate bought Yes at 53¢ on a geopolitics market already moving sharply upward.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 81 resolved trades and is up $53.7K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 26 related events with $211K total deployed, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
  • Bought Yes at 53¢ before the market moved to 56¢, with odds up 26.5 points over the past week.

$1,188 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Serial cross-market winner

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.

  • This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
  • They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
  • They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial cross-market winner

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.

  • This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
  • They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
  • They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.

$2,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial cross-market winner

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.

  • This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
  • They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
  • They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.

$1,686 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial cross-market winner

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.

  • This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
  • They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
  • They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.

$1,317 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

  1. 0x246b...1196 Yes, $24,122 (79% win rate)
  2. 0x551e...b0e0 Yes, $15,789 (71% win rate)
  3. 0xbf96...9942 Yes, $12,225 (77% win rate)
  4. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $10,448 (54% win rate)
  5. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $8,476 (74% win rate)
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $7,949 (47% win rate)
  7. 0xcd71...d127 No, $7,097 (80% win rate)
  8. 0x5039...946d No, $6,886 (56% win rate)
  9. 0xbef5...1c5a No, $5,719 (56% win rate)
  10. 0x8454...331a No, $5,000 (91% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

43dIran charges Hormuz fees by...?$22,827 tracked11 signalstollIranGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
40¢
No
61¢

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
65¢
53¢
42¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

4d ago

$1,394 on No at 58¢

58¢61¢3¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

7d ago

$2,025 on No at 53¢

53¢61¢8¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

8d ago

$4,066 on No at 49¢

49¢61¢12¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

8d ago

$2,022 on No at 53¢

53¢61¢8¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

11d ago

$3,173 on No at 53¢

53¢61¢8¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

16d ago

$1,188 on Yes at 53¢

53¢40¢13¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

16d ago

$1,500 on No at 58¢

58¢61¢3¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

16d ago

$2,200 on No at 58¢

58¢61¢3¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

16d ago

$1,686 on No at 58¢

58¢61¢3¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

19d ago

$1,317 on No at 58¢

58¢61¢3¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

19d ago

$2,256 on No at 58¢

58¢61¢3¢

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Calendar arbitrage on talks
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
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