Part of: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
This prediction market tracks whether Iran will officially announce and begin collecting mandatory fees, tolls, tariffs, or similar charges from commercial vessels for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,394 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market, with resolution based on whether a qualifying policy is both announced and put into collection before the deadline.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
11 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,827.
Categories: toll, Iran, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
- This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
- They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
- They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.
$1,394 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Proven cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $852K lifetime.
- They have traded 194 markets across 71 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 53¢ implies they see the current Hormuz-fee risk as overstated.
$2,025 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable cross-market regular
A profitable high-volume cross-market trader is adding to a No position on a geopolitical market, but the signal is moderate rather than a clear sharp-wallet edge.
- This trader is up about $1.0M lifetime across more than $55M invested.
- They have traded 130 markets across 71 events, showing a repeated cross-market thesis pattern.
- They are adding to an existing No position while the market sits near 53¢.
$4,066 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Proven cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $852K lifetime.
- They have traded 194 markets across 71 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 53¢ implies they see the current Hormuz-fee risk as overstated.
$2,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Proven cross-market winner
Proven profitable wallet with broad cross-market experience is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $852K lifetime.
- They have traded 194 markets across 71 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 53¢ implies they see the current Hormuz-fee risk as overstated.
$3,173 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate bought Yes at 53¢ on a geopolitics market already moving sharply upward.
- This bettor has won 75% of 81 resolved trades and is up $53.7K lifetime.
- They have traded across 26 related events with $211K total deployed, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
- Bought Yes at 53¢ before the market moved to 56¢, with odds up 26.5 points over the past week.
$1,188 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
- This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
- They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
- They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.
$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
- This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
- They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
- They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.
$2,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
- This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
- They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
- They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.
$1,686 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial cross-market winner
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, with the position already moving slightly in their favor.
- This bettor has 1,739 resolved trades, wins 69%, and is up $43k lifetime.
- They repeatedly build theses across related markets, with activity across 32 events and $73k tracked.
- They bought No at 58¢, and the market has already moved to about 60¢.
$1,317 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0x246b...1196 — Yes, $24,122 (79% win rate)
- 0x551e...b0e0 — Yes, $15,789 (71% win rate)
- 0xbf96...9942 — Yes, $12,225 (77% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — Yes, $10,448 (54% win rate)
- 0xb4f2...e5fa — No, $8,476 (74% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $7,949 (47% win rate)
- 0xcd71...d127 — No, $7,097 (80% win rate)
- 0x5039...946d — No, $6,886 (56% win rate)
- 0xbef5...1c5a — No, $5,719 (56% win rate)
- 0x8454...331a — No, $5,000 (91% win rate)
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