Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes for a broad commercial aviation closure and No otherwise; the supplied metadata shows $3,039 in tracked smart money across one signal, but does not include current live odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
29 smart money signals detected, totaling $126,293.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Serial trader scaling into No
A high-volume geopolitical market is seeing a 22x activity spike while a serial trader adds $3,039 to an existing No position.
- This serial cross-market trader has 499 resolved bets and is adding $3,039 to No after already investing $15,497.
- Trading activity is running 22.1x above its historical average, while No has gained roughly 19% over the past day.
- The new entry was 42¢, below the current 44¢ No price, suggesting continued conviction despite the move.
$3,039 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
93% win-rate bettor adds to No
A highly successful serial trader is adding $3,828 to an existing No position despite strong recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor has won 93% of 101 resolved trades and is up $81,196 lifetime.
- They are adding $3,828 to an existing No position, bringing total investment on No to about $19,000.
- No is priced at 34¢ after Yes rose 61% over the past week, indicating a contrarian view against recent momentum.
$2,568 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Serial 92% winner adds to No
A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to a large No position, though the trade offers only modest apparent price edge.
- This bettor has won 92% of 188 resolved trades and is up $61,574 lifetime.
- They are scaling an existing No position after trading eight markets in this event, with $195,601 committed across them.
- The $4,223 addition is meaningful relative to the alert window, but No is already priced at 89¢, leaving limited apparent mispricing.
$4,679 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
93% win-rate bettor adds to No
A highly successful serial trader is adding $3,828 to an existing No position despite strong recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor has won 93% of 101 resolved trades and is up $81,196 lifetime.
- They are adding $3,828 to an existing No position, bringing total investment on No to about $19,000.
- No is priced at 34¢ after Yes rose 61% over the past week, indicating a contrarian view against recent momentum.
$3,828 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Funded wallets scale into Yes
A linked-wallet purchase and 29.5x volume spike support fresh bullish positioning, though the trader is adding to an existing position and lacks a strong historical edge.
- Two wallets sharing a funder committed nearly $28,000 to Yes, including a $23,208 purchase.
- The market saw a 29.5x historical volume spike while Yes surged to 81%.
- This wallet is adding to an existing Yes position, but its 61% win rate is not clearly superior to its typical 85¢ entries.
$13,068 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
Funded wallets scale into Yes
A linked-wallet purchase and 29.5x volume spike support fresh bullish positioning, though the trader is adding to an existing position and lacks a strong historical edge.
- Two wallets sharing a funder committed nearly $28,000 to Yes, including a $23,208 purchase.
- The market saw a 29.5x historical volume spike while Yes surged to 81%.
- This wallet is adding to an existing Yes position, but its 61% win rate is not clearly superior to its typical 85¢ entries.
$6,176 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
Serial 92% winner adds to No
A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to a large No position, though the trade offers only modest apparent price edge.
- This bettor has won 92% of 188 resolved trades and is up $61,574 lifetime.
- They are scaling an existing No position after trading eight markets in this event, with $195,601 committed across them.
- The $4,223 addition is meaningful relative to the alert window, but No is already priced at 89¢, leaving limited apparent mispricing.
$1,608 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Serial 92% winner adds to No
A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to a large No position, though the trade offers only modest apparent price edge.
- This bettor has won 92% of 188 resolved trades and is up $61,574 lifetime.
- They are scaling an existing No position after trading eight markets in this event, with $195,601 committed across them.
- The $4,223 addition is meaningful relative to the alert window, but No is already priced at 89¢, leaving limited apparent mispricing.
$1,003 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Serial 92% winner adds to No
A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to a large No position, though the trade offers only modest apparent price edge.
- This bettor has won 92% of 188 resolved trades and is up $61,574 lifetime.
- They are scaling an existing No position after trading eight markets in this event, with $195,601 committed across them.
- The $4,223 addition is meaningful relative to the alert window, but No is already priced at 89¢, leaving limited apparent mispricing.
$2,265 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
90% winner adds to No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position despite a sharp move toward Yes.
- This bettor has won 90% of 133 resolved trades and is up $192,192 lifetime.
- They added $1,538 to No despite Yes rising 59% in one day, increasing an existing $11,826 No position.
- The wallet is active across 50 events and recently traded three markets tied to this event, signaling a broader thesis.
$3,468 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xdf17...97d1 — Yes, $111,899 (57% win rate)
- 0x12d5...f0eb — No, $58,825 (72% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $52,334 (49% win rate)
- 0xff1e...5e2d — Yes, $40,549 (99% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $40,004 (68% win rate)
- 0xbf96...9942 — No, $34,231 (74% win rate)
- 0x1295...5cfd — Yes, $32,476 (98% win rate)
- 0x4807...70ab — No, $27,497 (65% win rate)
- 0xcc3e...0e8d — No, $24,755
- 0x6d9f...9790 — Yes, $24,273 (60% win rate)
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