Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $89,721.
Categories: Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Geopolitics, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Israel, World
Notable Trades
19-wallet sharp cluster
A proven cross-market bettor with a 71% win rate bought Yes at 29¢, and the wallet belongs to a 19-wallet funded cluster that has shown repeated coordinated activity.
- This bettor wins 71% of resolved trades and is up about $279k across 380 settled bets.
- The wallet is part of a 19-wallet funded cluster, which points to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off punt.
- They bought Yes at 29¢ while the market has been drifting lower, suggesting they see the recent drop as mispriced.
$2,056 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
14-wallet sharp cluster
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader from a 14-wallet funded cluster is effectively buying Yes at 39¢ on a major geopolitics market, making this a follow-worthy directional signal despite modest size.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.25M lifetime across more than 1,000 bets
- The wallet is part of a 14-wallet funded cluster, which often signals one actor spreading a thesis across accounts
- Selling No at 61¢ is effectively a buy on Yes at 39¢, near the current ask in a liquid geopolitics market
$1,208 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Repeat new-wallet whale
A 3-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets across markets and is now re-entering this geopolitical market with a fresh Yes buy after prior trading activity, suggesting sustained conviction rather than a one-off punt.
- This 3-day-old wallet has already triggered 25 large-bet alerts totaling about $78k
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 47¢ on a major geopolitics market with strong recent momentum
- The bettor has already made 5 positions despite being brand new, which points to active conviction rather than casual trading
$1,269 on Yes
Sharp 3-wallet Yes cluster
Three wallets piled into Yes for over $11k, led by a bettor with an 88% win rate across 179 resolved markets and a long history of profitable cross-market event trading.
- One wallet wins 88% of its bets and is up $411k, making this a strong lead trader to follow
- Three wallets bought more than $11k of Yes within minutes, showing coordinated conviction at 37¢ to 41¢
- The market had just fallen 11 points in a day, so these buys look like sharp money stepping into weakness
$11,171 on Yes
88% win-rate sharp bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 37¢ after a sharp one-day drop, making this a credible sharp-bettor entry worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $1.13M lifetime
- They have traded 140 markets across 88 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes at 37¢ after the market fell 21 points in a day, signaling they may see the selloff as overdone
$1,156 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 58¢ in a fast-moving geopolitics market, making this a credible copy-trade signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $396k lifetime.
- They have traded 50 markets across 26 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 58¢ after this market jumped 16 points in a day, backing continued momentum in a major geopolitics market.
$2,922 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% win rate is buying Yes into strong momentum on a geopolitics market, making this a follow-worthy sharp-money signal despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $396k across 177 settled markets.
- They have traded 50 markets across 26 related events, which points to a repeatable edge in news-driven markets.
- They bought Yes around 59¢ while this market is already up 15 points in a day and 38 points in a week.
$2,359 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
88% win-rate macro trader
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader with broad cross-market activity is taking the bearish side here by selling Yes, which translates to buying No around 71¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up about $398k lifetime.
- They have traded 46 related markets across 25 events, which points to a repeatable edge in news-driven markets.
- This trade effectively buys No around 71¢, matching a sharp trader leaning against a deal by April 30.
$1,752 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
3-wallet bearish cluster
Three wallets collectively sold Yes, equivalent to buying No around 64-75¢, including one bettor with an 88% win rate and another up $286k lifetime, creating a credible coordinated bearish signal on a major geopolitics market.
- Three wallets lined up on the same side for $8.7k total, a coordinated bet against a deal by April 30.
- One wallet wins 88% of their trades and is up $396k lifetime, while another is up $287k across 372 resolved bets.
- These sells translate to buying No around 64-75¢, close to the current 72¢ No price in a liquid news-driven market.
$8,661 on No
18-wallet profitable cluster
A profitable serial event trader from an 18-wallet funded cluster sold Yes at 35¢, which converts to a copyable No buy around 65¢ on a politically relevant market with rising attention.
- This wallet wins 70% of resolved bets and is up about $287k across 372 settled markets.
- It belongs to an 18-wallet group funded by the same source, a pattern that often reflects coordinated conviction.
- Selling Yes at 35¢ is equivalent to buying No at 65¢, backing the higher-probability side in a major geopolitical market.
$1,746 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 11249242, $61,961 (84% win rate)
- 0x12ee...780a — Outcome 11249242, $38,970
- 0x162f...798d — Outcome 11249242, $27,952 (70% win rate)
- 0xabb4...7b57 — Outcome 11249242, $20,000 (83% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 11249242, $15,000 (38% win rate)
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Outcome 11249242, $10,000 (57% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 11249242, $7,005 (39% win rate)
- 0xa2d4...7d90 — Outcome 11249242, $5,831
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 11249242, $5,819 (67% win rate)
- 0x83e8...7b89 — Outcome 11249242, $5,691 (55% win rate)
