US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
20 signals across 1 market · $89,721 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research or nuclear weapon development by April 30, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, while PolySpotter tracks smart-money activity across the market, including repeated sharp-cluster alerts and nearly $90K in tracked informed flow.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 12-wallet sharp cluster
A funded 12-wallet cluster with an 85% win-rate cross-market track record simultaneously sold No here, which translates to a coordinated buy of Yes around 15¢ during a major volume spike.
$18,175Score: 18.9 - 19-wallet sharp cluster
A proven cross-market bettor with a 71% win rate bought Yes at 29¢, and the wallet belongs to a 19-wallet funded cluster that has shown repeated coordinated activity.
$2,056Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 12.0 - 12-wallet sharp cluster
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader from a 12-wallet linked cluster is effectively buying Yes at 13¢ in a major geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction despite the market pricing only a 12% chance.
$3,610Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 12.0 - 12-wallet sharp cluster
A highly profitable 85% win-rate wallet from a 12-wallet funded cluster is taking a fresh cross-market geopolitical position by effectively buying Yes at 14¢.
$2,415Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 12.0 - 85% winner in linked cluster
A highly profitable 85% win-rate wallet from a 12-wallet linked cluster is taking a fresh directional position on a geopolitics market by selling No, equivalent to buying Yes around 16¢.
$2,625Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 12.0 - 18-wallet profitable cluster
A profitable serial event trader from an 18-wallet funded cluster sold Yes at 35¢, which converts to a copyable No buy around 65¢ on a politically relevant market with rising attention.
$1,746Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 12.0 - 14-wallet sharp cluster
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader from a 14-wallet funded cluster is effectively buying Yes at 39¢ on a major geopolitics market, making this a follow-worthy directional signal despite modest size.
$1,208Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 12.0 - 15-wallet sharp cluster
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader from a 15-wallet funded cluster bought Yes in a politically sensitive market with strong recent momentum, making this worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.
$1,460Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 11.0 - Sharp 3-wallet Yes cluster
Three wallets piled into Yes for over $11k, led by a bettor with an 88% win rate across 179 resolved markets and a long history of profitable cross-market event trading.
$11,171Score: 10.1 - 9-wallet sharp cluster
A 9-wallet funded cluster is active, and this wallet itself has a strong 86% win rate, making the $10k No bet worth watching despite the market's decent liquidity.
$10,000Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 8.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$12,000 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0xa30e45…49d5$10,714 · 1 market · 1 alert · 96% wins
- 0x000d25…758e$9,858 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$8,462 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$5,262 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 69% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$2,993 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0xa65c87…7997$1,269 · 1 market · 1 alert · 59% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$1,156 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
The live Polymarket price reflects the market-implied odds that a qualifying US-Iran nuclear agreement is announced by the April 30, 2026 deadline. PolySpotter adds context by highlighting smart-money flows behind those odds.
What counts as a “Yes” outcome for this market?
The market resolves to Yes if the United States and Iran publicly announce a mutual agreement related to Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by the deadline. The agreement does not need to go into effect before then.
What is smart money doing in this US-Iran nuclear deal market?
PolySpotter has tracked about $89,721 in smart-money activity across 20 signals. Recent alerts include multiple 12-wallet sharp clusters, a 19-wallet sharp cluster, and an 85% winner in a linked cluster, suggesting coordinated attention from historically strong traders.
When does the US-Iran nuclear deal market resolve?
The market is scheduled around the April 30, 2026 deadline. If an official qualifying agreement is announced before the cutoff, it can resolve Yes; otherwise, it resolves No.
Is this the same as betting on diplomacy generally improving?
No. This market is specifically about an official mutual US-Iran nuclear agreement by the deadline, not broader diplomatic talks, ceasefire headlines, or informal negotiations unless they produce a qualifying public agreement.