Part of: Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,645.
Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, primary elections, Republican Primary, Governor Primary, Minnesota Primary, August 11 Primaries, US Election
Notable Trades
Four-wallet Yes cluster before major repricing
Four wallets made a concentrated $6,157 Yes entry around 71–74¢ before the market surged 81% over the week, although the group lacks a strong proven track record.
- Four wallets collectively bought $6,157 of Yes around 71–74¢, showing concentrated conviction before the market reached 100%.
- The market rose 81% over the past week, strongly corroborating the coordinated buying.
- Most wallets lack a compelling long-term edge, and two were adding to existing Yes positions rather than opening entirely new exposure.
$6,157 on Yes
Six-wallet political positioning cluster
Six linked wallets are coordinating around Lisa Demuth while the market has already risen 37% in a week, creating a notable though modest-sized political positioning signal.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are concentrated on this outcome, totaling about $1,185.
- The market has climbed 37% over the past week, supporting the direction of the new positioning.
- The trader has a 66% lifetime win rate across 148 resolved bets, though its average winning entry of 91¢ limits evidence of a major pricing edge.
$1,329 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
91% winner adds with linked wallets
A highly profitable bettor with a 91% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position at 70% alongside two linked wallets as the market has surged 49.5% in a week.
- This bettor has won 20 of 22 resolved trades and earned $202,768 in profit, with a strong record relative to entry prices.
- The wallet is adding $1,351 to an existing Yes position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine position management.
- Three wallets sharing a funder have committed to the same outcome, while Yes has risen 49.5% over the past week.
$1,351 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Sharp serial trader buys Demuth
A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $5,432 purchase as this candidate's odds rose sharply.
- This bettor has won 83% of 189 resolved trades and is up $1.24 million.
- They placed a fresh $5,432 bet at 65¢, while the market has risen 44% over the past week.
- The trader has positioned across 60 events, suggesting an established and repeatable forecasting strategy.
$5,432 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Six-wallet coordinated Lisa Demuth bet
Six linked wallets have concentrated exposure to Lisa Demuth, while the market has risen 37% over the past week and the wallet is making a fresh buy at 62%.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are concentrated in this market, with about $2,250 committed to Yes.
- The Yes price has climbed 37% in a week, supporting the coordinated bullish positioning.
- This wallet is making a fresh Yes entry at 62%, rather than merely taking profits from an existing position.
$2,250 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet political positioning cluster
Six linked wallets are coordinating around Lisa Demuth while the market has already risen 37% in a week, creating a notable though modest-sized political positioning signal.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are concentrated on this outcome, totaling about $1,185.
- The market has climbed 37% over the past week, supporting the direction of the new positioning.
- The trader has a 66% lifetime win rate across 148 resolved bets, though its average winning entry of 91¢ limits evidence of a major pricing edge.
$1,185 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Highly profitable bettor, mixed position
A highly profitable bettor with an 83% win rate and $1.24M lifetime profit made a substantial position, although the simultaneous Yes and No buys make the directional thesis unclear.
- This bettor wins 83% of 189 resolved trades and is up $1.24 million lifetime.
- The wallet deployed nearly $9,000 while Lisa Demuth’s Yes price was rising, with the market up 34% over the past week.
- The simultaneous Yes and No purchases create an unclear hedge, so the trade is more useful to study than copy directly.
$8,941 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 45361184, $27,941 (70% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 45361184, $23,000 (73% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 45361184, $20,790
- 0x4cc3...7552 — Outcome 45361184, $9,460 (48% win rate)
- 0x1cfc...2111 — Outcome 45361184, $2,981
- 0x22e4...ef1c — Outcome 45361184, $2,000 (59% win rate)
- 0x5533...51ba — Outcome 45361184, $1,399
- 0xb8b1...ac9a — Outcome 45361184, $1,000
- 0xfd4b...d965 — Outcome 45361184, $550
- 0x52eb...67ac — Outcome 45361184, $513 (79% win rate)
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