Part of: Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
24 smart money signals detected, totaling $135,193.
Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
New whale betting conflict drags on
A 10-day-old wallet has already put nearly $49k into repeated conflict-event bets and just made a fresh $12.9k bearish trade across related markets, suggesting strong conviction rather than routine activity.
- This 10-day-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts and put nearly $49k into flagged trades
- They sold Yes at 82¢, which translates to buying No at 18¢ that this conflict will not end by May 15
- The wallet is also betting across 2 related conflict markets, showing a broader event-driven thesis
$12,933 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%
New wallet conflict-event whale
A 9-day-old wallet has already deployed meaningful size across this conflict event and is adding a fresh $12k Yes bet into strong momentum, suggesting high-conviction thematic positioning despite limited resolved history.
- This 9-day-old wallet has already made 8 flagged large bets totaling $35.7k, showing aggressive early conviction
- They bought Yes at 78¢ while this market is up 14.5 points in a day and 46.5 points in a week
- The wallet is betting across 2 related conflict markets, pointing to a broader event-driven thesis
$12,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
Sharp cross-market bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is expressing the same thesis across five related conflict markets, making this a credible cross-market signal despite the modest single-ticket size.
- This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $572k lifetime
- They have put nearly $80k across 5 related conflict markets, showing a coordinated event-wide thesis
- They bought Yes at 68¢ while this market has already moved sharply higher, up 12 points in 1 day and 37 points in 1 week
$1,094 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
86% winner, event thesis
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is making a fresh cross-market bet across five related conflict markets, suggesting a coordinated event thesis worth following.
- This bettor wins 86% of their resolved trades and is up about $572k lifetime
- They have put nearly $86k across 5 related conflict markets, which points to a broader event view rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes at 67¢ in a deep market after a 13.5-point one-day pullback, suggesting they see the dip as mispriced
$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
91% win-rate thesis trader
A bettor with a 91% win rate and six-figure profits is building a cross-market thesis across five related conflict markets, making this small add-on trade worth tracking despite the liquid market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $171k overall.
- They have put $62.5k across 5 related conflict markets, pointing to a broader event view rather than a one-off bet.
- Bought Yes at 64¢ in a market that fell 16.5 points in a day, suggesting they are stepping in after a sharp pullback.
$1,095 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Sharp trio piling into Yes
Three highly profitable wallets with 86-91% win rates all bought Yes across this conflict event, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than random flow.
- Three profitable bettors with 86-91% win rates all bought the same side here.
- These wallets have made $1.07M combined and have been active across 5 related markets in this event.
- They entered at 64-66¢, backing the market even after a sharp 14.5-point pullback in the last day.
$4,595 on Yes
91% win-rate thesis trader
A proven sharp wallet with a 91% win rate is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis and just bought Yes at 63¢ in a highly active conflict market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $170k lifetime across 46 settled bets.
- They have been betting across 5 related markets in the same event, which points to a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- They bought Yes at 63¢ in a liquid market after a sharp 1-day drop, suggesting they see the recent selloff as too pessimistic.
$1,840 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
86% win-rate event bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is making a fresh cross-market event bet, suggesting a coordinated thesis across the Iran-Israel conflict markets rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $333k lifetime
- They have put $131k across 6 related conflict markets, pointing to a broader event thesis
- Bought Yes at 61¢ after a 20-point one-day drop, suggesting they view the pullback as mispriced
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
86% win-rate thesis bettor
A proven high-win-rate trader with over $500k in profits is expressing the same thesis across five related conflict markets, making this a copy-worthy directional signal despite the modest single-ticket size.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $533k overall.
- They have put $81k across 5 related conflict markets, so this looks like a deliberate event-wide view rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 67¢ while the market sits around 68-69¢, backing a continued de-escalation path before May 15.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Active new wallet reloading Yes
A very active new wallet is re-entering the bullish side across multiple related conflict markets with real size as this market has sharply repriced upward.
- This 22-day-old wallet has already made 21 other flagged bets totaling $188k, showing unusually aggressive conviction for a new account.
- The trade was a SELL of No at 21¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 79¢ in a market that is up 37 points over the past week.
- This wallet is betting across 3 related conflict markets with $86k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
$12,441 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Related Theses
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