Part of: Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
This prediction market asks whether the US-Iranian ceasefire will remain in effect through May 24 ET. It resolves “No” if the U.S. is officially confirmed, or credibly reported by overwhelming consensus, to have conducted kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. PolySpotter is tracking $4,018 in smart money activity across 2 signals for this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
40 smart money signals detected, totaling $150,959.
Categories: Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Serial geopolitics trader
Experienced cross-market geopolitics bettor with positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes at 77¢ after trading related Iran ceasefire markets.
- This bettor has 706 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up about $41.8K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 26 events and 41 related markets.
- Entry at 77¢ backs the ceasefire continuing despite the market falling 10 points over the last day.
$2,565 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
86% winner buying Yes
Surfaced due to a proven 86% winning wallet with positive lifetime P&L taking a fresh Yes position across related Iran-ceasefire markets.
- This bettor has won 86% of 90 resolved trades and is up about $5,000 lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 76¢ after previously closing positions on both sides, suggesting fresh conviction.
- They have put $4,341 across 2 related markets in the same event.
$1,453 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
89% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a geopolitics market after a major move against Yes.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $182k lifetime.
- They have traded across 75 events and $3.1M of cross-market positions, suggesting a repeatable edge.
- Entry at 35¢ on No came as Yes fell 21.5% over the past day, aligning with market momentum.
$3,862 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Profitable serial event trader
Experienced profitable cross-market trader is buying Yes on the ceasefire after trading both sides of this event, though the stake is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor has 706 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $41.5K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 26 events and $331K of related-event bets.
- This is a fresh Yes buy after previously closing positions on both sides, suggesting an updated view.
$1,320 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long cross-market track record is buying Yes after a sharp selloff in a geopolitics market.
- This bettor is up $326k lifetime across 849 resolved markets.
- They have traded 57 related event markets across 28 events, showing a repeat cross-market strategy.
- Buying Yes at 65¢ comes after the market fell 21 points in a day, suggesting a contrarian ceasefire view.
$3,118 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%
Linked cluster buying rebound
Four wallets, including a linked pair and a serial cross-market trader, are buying Yes together after a sharp selloff in a geopolitically sensitive market.
- Four wallets bought the same side, with two sharing a funder, signaling coordinated conviction.
- One participant is a serial cross-market trader across 26 events with a 67% win rate.
- They are buying after Yes fell 23.5 points in a day, suggesting a contrarian rebound bet.
$5,345 on Yes
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering Yes after a sharp price drop, with broader positioning across four related event markets.
- This bettor has won 66% of 242 resolved trades and is up $67.8K lifetime.
- They are a serial event trader, with activity across 26 events and 46 related markets.
- Buying Yes at 57¢ after a 29.5-point one-day drop suggests they see the selloff as overdone.
$1,782 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering Yes after a sharp selloff while also positioning across related event markets.
- This bettor has won 66% of 242 resolved trades and is up about $67.8k lifetime.
- They have $15.3k positioned across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying Yes at 56¢ after a 29-point daily drop implies they see the selloff as overdone.
$2,037 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
89% win-rate cross-market sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and $182k lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes on the ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $182k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 75 events with over $3M traded.
- Selling No at 45¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 55¢, backing the ceasefire to hold.
$1,342 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is leaning against the ceasefire across four related markets, and this SELL Yes converts to buying No around 47¢.
- This bettor has a long record across 242 resolved bets and is up about $67.8K lifetime.
- They have traded 4 markets in this same event for about $14.5K, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling Yes at 53¢ is equivalent to buying No at 47¢ after Yes fell 33 points in the past day.
$1,187 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0x87ca...3448 — No, $100,728 (50% win rate)
- 0xc15b...38af — Yes, $84,276 (88% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — No, $83,771 (89% win rate)
- 0x12d6...f2a8 — Yes, $50,504 (48% win rate)
- 0x2974...9c23 — Yes, $45,118 (90% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $38,373 (59% win rate)
- 0xe36f...cd91 — Yes, $30,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x000d...758e — Yes, $28,105 (85% win rate)
- 0xcc8e...d4bc — No, $26,560
- 0x6d9f...9790 — Yes, $25,049 (62% win rate)
Related Theses
Starmer exits after May 19
Covers 4 related markets
No lasting US-Iran deal
Covers 6 related markets
