Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
This Polymarket market asks whether Iran will initiate a major non-weather-related closure of its airspace by June 15, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if there is a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension affecting commercial flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $53,261 in smart money activity across 5 signals, including sharp Yes flow and wallets fading a spike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
36 smart money signals detected, totaling $133,004.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
70% serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate put $29K on Yes ahead of a major price and volume surge.
- This bettor has won 70% of 71 resolved bets and is up about $293K lifetime.
- They bought $29K of Yes at 88–89¢ before the market jumped to 96¢.
- This is part of a broader thesis across 6 related markets totaling about $220K.
$29,128 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
82% winner flips Yes
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with large cross-market event positioning flipped from a prior No stance to buying Yes on a fast-moving Iran airspace market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $565k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.5M deployed across 53 events.
- They have $83k positioned across 8 related markets and flipped from a prior No position to buying Yes.
$1,926 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp wallets fading spike
Three wallets are taking the No side against a huge Yes price spike, led by a profitable 83% winner and strong cross-market positioning.
- A bettor who wins 83% of resolved trades is part of this No-side cluster and is up $5.8K lifetime.
- Three wallets put $7.3K on No, mostly by selling Yes as the market surged.
- One wallet has traded 8 related markets with an 82% win record, suggesting a broader event thesis.
$7,329 on No
Coordinated sharp Yes flow
High-conviction coordinated Yes buying from five wallets, backed by sharp cross-market traders, a major volume spike, and a 20-point price move.
- Five wallets bought $12.9k of Yes together as the price surged from 53¢ to 74¢.
- Several bettors have strong histories, including one up $247k lifetime and another serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate.
- Volume is 18x above normal and Yes is up 64 points in a day, suggesting fast-moving momentum around this event.
$12,878 on Yes
Profitable Iran thesis bettor
Profitable wallet is building a broader Iran-event thesis across 8 related markets, with this Yes buy aligning with strong recent market momentum.
- This bettor is up $125k lifetime across $4.6M traded.
- They have placed $35k across 8 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Yes has surged about 35 points in 24h, and this buy came in at 48¢.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is taking a $4.5k No position while also trading multiple related markets in the same event.
- This bettor has a long profitable record: 65% wins across 1,550 resolved trades and +$264k lifetime.
- They are active across 4 related markets in this event, with $29k positioned on the broader thesis.
- This is a fresh flip toward No after closing a prior Yes position, not routine profit-taking.
$4,463 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a renewed No position while holding a broader $102k cross-market thesis across the same event.
- This bettor has 888 resolved trades, wins 62% of them, and is up $367k lifetime.
- They have placed $102k across 8 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 85¢ means they are backing Iran not closing its airspace by the deadline.
$2,583 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable cross-market Iran trader
Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a cross-market Iran thesis by fading airspace-closure odds, though the signal is modest and not a high-conviction whale trade.
- This bettor has a long record: 910 resolved bets with $53K in lifetime profit.
- They are trading across 3 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling Yes at 14¢ is equivalent to backing No at 86¢, a bet that closure odds are overstated.
$1,083 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
6-wallet funded group
High-severity linked-wallet signal on a geopolitical market, with a profitable long-shot bettor buying Yes despite the market pulling back.
- Six wallets funded by the same source are tied to this position, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- This wallet is up $36k lifetime despite a low hit rate, with wins typically coming from cheap long-shot entries.
- Entry at 20¢ implies a 5x payoff if Iran closes its airspace by the deadline.
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 42%
88% winner buying No
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and $707k lifetime profit is buying No across this Iran airspace thesis.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $707k lifetime.
- They have traded 71 markets across 39 events, with $1.8M total volume and strong results.
- They are backing No again at 88¢ while also positioning across 5 related markets worth $41.6k.
$3,802 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0x7750...5226 — Yes, $484,032
- 0x665d...af35 — Yes, $429,241
- 0x52e5...920a — Yes, $281,829
- 0xef14...c335 — Yes, $101,594
- 0x33a9...9e97 — No, $101,000
- 0xc4f3...9e3a — No, $100,000
- 0x7c94...00d0 — No, $88,192
- 0xa585...8875 — No, $87,000 (50% win rate)
- 0xd640...480c — No, $67,699 (39% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $59,014 (69% win rate)
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