US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,113.

Categories: Iran, Kushner, Geopolitics, Politics, Trump, Khamenei, Witkoff, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

80% win-rate geopolitical trader

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 80% win rate bought into the bullish side of a geopolitically meaningful market during a major volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades across 157 markets and has traded $1.69M across 97 events
  • They effectively bought Yes at 10¢ by selling No at 90¢ in a market that is seeing a 74.5x volume spike
  • A $28.6k position is meaningful even in a liquid market, and the topic is one where broad event-trading experience can matter

$28,613 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

95% hit-rate geopolitics bettor

A very high-hit-rate wallet with nearly 1,000 resolved bets is adding a cross-market geopolitical position despite weak standalone trade size, making this worth watching mainly for the trader’s track record.

  • This bettor wins 95% of 968 resolved trades, a rare hit rate worth tracking.
  • They bet across 2 related markets in the same event with $11.5k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off click.
  • They bought No at 77¢ after a fast move toward No, signaling conviction that no official meeting happens by the deadline.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfd1a...76b4 Outcome 46060332, $212,837
  2. 0xdc63...427a Outcome 46060332, $152,496 (88% win rate)
  3. 0x2282...1051 Outcome 46060332, $82,774
  4. 0x83c3...38c5 Outcome 46060332, $70,331
  5. 0xcc26...32ca Outcome 46060332, $53,018 (31% win rate)
  6. 0xe598...a0a8 Outcome 46060332, $46,119 (91% win rate)
  7. 0x5602...1480 Outcome 46060332, $23,266 (63% win rate)
  8. 0x962b...5200 Outcome 46060332, $23,000
  9. 0xc6d7...0278 Outcome 46060332, $16,667
  10. 0x09bc...9ffc Outcome 46060332, $16,000

Related Theses

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Resolved$30,113 tracked2 signalsIranKushnerGeopoliticsPoliticsTrumpKhameneiWitkoffIran Ceasefire

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

6d ago

$28,613 on Yes at 10¢

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

10d ago

$1,500 on No at 77¢

Related Theses