Part of: Brazil Presidential Election
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
This prediction market asks whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will win Brazil’s presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026, including any potential second round. The provided market data does not include a live current price; it records $3,000 in tracked smart money and resolves based on credible election reporting, or to “Other” if the result remains unknown by June 30, 2027.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $248,170.
Categories: Brazil, Global Elections, World Elections, World, Politics, Macro Election 2, Main Election
Notable Trades
Proven 79% bettor buys Lula
A highly proven bettor with 1,154 resolved positions and a substantial edge is buying Lula at 63¢.
- This bettor wins 79% of 1,154 resolved trades and is up $519,467 lifetime.
- Their results significantly exceed the roughly 60% average winning price, indicating a meaningful edge rather than simple favorite-buying.
- They are buying Yes at 63¢ in a liquid market, implying confidence Lula’s election probability is higher than the current price.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
94% winner adds to Lula position
A proven bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $5,000 to an existing Yes position despite Lula pricing already at 64%.
- This bettor has won 16 of 17 resolved trades, with a $11,701 profit and average entry odds of 57%.
- The $5,000 purchase adds to an existing $7,912 Yes position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine position management.
- The market is liquid with a tight 1¢ spread, making this an actionable entry at 64¢.
$3,875 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Proven sharp scaling into Lula Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 1,478 resolved positions and an 82% win rate is adding $7,500 to an existing Lula Yes position amid a 102x volume spike.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,478 resolved positions and is up $776,897 lifetime.
- They added $7,500 to an already-large Yes position, bringing their exposure to roughly $54,000.
- The trade coincided with a 102x historical volume spike, while Lula Yes was priced at 65¢.
$7,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
94% winner adds to Lula position
A proven bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $5,000 to an existing Yes position despite Lula pricing already at 64%.
- This bettor has won 16 of 17 resolved trades, with a $11,701 profit and average entry odds of 57%.
- The $5,000 purchase adds to an existing $7,912 Yes position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine position management.
- The market is liquid with a tight 1¢ spread, making this an actionable entry at 64¢.
$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
83% winner buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with an 83% record is buying Lula Yes despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $84k lifetime.
- They put $3.7k on Lula at 58¢, adding to a $4.8k cross-market election thesis.
- Entry at 58¢ implies they see Lula as underpriced despite an already liquid market.
$7,570 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
93% win-rate serial bettor backs Lula
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate and substantial historical edge is taking a fresh bullish position on Lula by selling No at 39%.
- This bettor has won 93% of 145 resolved trades and is up $1.22 million.
- Their results are exceptional relative to a 47% average entry price, indicating a substantial historical edge.
- Selling No at 39¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 61¢ on Lula winning the election.
$3,900 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
83% winner buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with an 83% record is buying Lula Yes despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $84k lifetime.
- They put $3.7k on Lula at 58¢, adding to a $4.8k cross-market election thesis.
- Entry at 58¢ implies they see Lula as underpriced despite an already liquid market.
$5,673 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Three-wallet Lula YES cluster
Three wallets independently concentrated nearly $5,000 into Yes, including a highly experienced profitable trader, though the market is liquid and the evidence is moderate rather than exceptional.
- Three wallets bought Yes at 65¢, committing nearly $5,000 to the same election outcome.
- One experienced bettor has 82,458 resolved trades, a 69% win rate, and roughly $450,000 in lifetime profit.
- Two wallets are adding to existing Yes positions, signaling continued conviction rather than a one-off trade.
$4,948 on Yes
97% winner buys Yes
Sharp-wallet override: this trader has a 97% resolved-bet win rate with positive lifetime P&L and is buying Lula Yes at 58¢.
- This bettor has won 101 of 104 resolved bets and is up $1,944 lifetime.
- They are buying Yes at 58¢ on a highly liquid election market, suggesting they still see upside.
- The wallet has beaten average implied odds by 24 points across its tracked history.
$3,854 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
Sharp serial cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes again on a major political market, supported by serial cross-market success.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $24.3K lifetime.
- They have a broad track record across 25 events, with $105K in serial cross-market bets.
- They are re-entering Yes at 50¢ after previously holding a much larger Yes position.
$8,632 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,729,839
- 0xbc75...3f69 — Yes, $701,288 (75% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $288,861 (49% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $201,426 (63% win rate)
- 0x636c...a2cf — Yes, $112,565 (100% win rate)
- 0x267e...b526 — Yes, $108,273
- 0xf81c...ccea — Yes, $78,019 (88% win rate)
- 0x30b6...0bb7 — Yes, $70,230
- 0x4930...d78d — Yes, $63,925
- 0x82e0...0779 — No, $59,975
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