Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026. A “Yes” outcome can be triggered by an official Iranian pledge, either unilateral or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. PolySpotter is tracking $3,248 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent geopolitical cluster alerts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
40 smart money signals detected, totaling $125,149.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long history is buying Yes on a geopolitics market, though the sizing is modest relative to liquidity.
- This bettor has 558 resolved trades, wins 65%, and is up $57K lifetime.
- They have traded across 39 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market thesis style.
- Entry at 47¢ implies they see this as a roughly even-money event despite current Yes odds near 46¢.
$1,877 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Sharp wallet flips bearish
Sharp profitable wallet with a 365-bet track record is closing a Yes position and leaning No across related Iran markets, though this looks more like a view change than a fresh oversized bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $226K lifetime.
- They have bet across 3 related markets with $31K total exposure, suggesting a broader Iran thesis.
- Selling Yes at 48¢ is equivalent to backing No at 52¢.
$1,371 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
75% serial cross-market bettor
A profitable 75% lifetime bettor with a long serial cross-market track record is buying Yes as part of a broader $33k position across related Iran markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $226k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $7.3M deployed across 146 markets.
- This is part of a broader $33k position across 3 related markets, suggesting a clear Iran-policy thesis.
$3,236 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
81% win-rate geopolitical trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate is re-entering Yes on a geopolitical market after prior exposure.
- This bettor has won 81% of 269 resolved bets and is up $65.9K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 34 events with over $1.3M in flagged activity.
- Buying Yes at 47¢ suggests they see upside in Iran agreeing to surrender at least some enriched uranium by the deadline.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable geopolitical cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes during a major volume spike on a geopolitically informed market, despite the price moving against the entry afterward.
- This bettor is up $321k lifetime across more than $15.9M traded.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 52 events and $1.94M in tracked positions.
- This market saw a 66.7x volume spike, and the wallet has $39k positioned across related markets.
$8,111 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable wallet with a large 380-bet history is building a cross-market Iran thesis, buying Yes at 48¢ despite only a moderate composite signal.
- This bettor has won 72% of 380 resolved bets and is up $316K lifetime.
- They have put $9.2K across two related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 48¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current near-even market.
$3,482 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market Iran thesis, but this specific entry is modest and not backed by a high win-rate signal.
- This bettor is up $1.57M lifetime and has traded over $243M across resolved markets.
- They have $42.8K positioned across 3 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 48¢ implies they see this as roughly a coin flip with upside if diplomatic terms shift.
$1,755 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 39%
99% winner buys NO
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 99% resolved win rate bought No on a major Iran nuclear market despite recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor has won 77 of 78 resolved positions and is up $319K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 79 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 48¢ goes against a 15-point one-day Yes move, implying they see the recent rally as overdone.
$1,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
84% winner cross-market thesis
Sharp 84% lifetime winner with major cross-market history effectively bought Yes on a related Iran uranium thesis despite only modest single-trade size.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $446K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.7M placed across 118 related-event markets.
- This is part of a broader 4-market Iran thesis totaling about $31.9K.
$1,234 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
81% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes despite the market trading below their fill now.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $67K lifetime across 269 outcomes.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.3M deployed across 75 related markets.
- They bought Yes at 57¢, while the market is now around 49¢, offering a cheaper entry than their fill.
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $44,124 (69% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $32,408 (63% win rate)
- 0x2fad...f5c0 — Yes, $24,047 (41% win rate)
- 0x801d...d8e0 — Yes, $18,145 (72% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $17,813 (57% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $16,416 (62% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $16,000 (72% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $14,500 (53% win rate)
- 0x8495...b6e8 — Yes, $13,780 (57% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $11,408 (62% win rate)
