Part of: Peru Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
17 smart money signals detected, totaling $61,640.
Categories: Peru, Politics, Elections, Global Elections, Peru Election
Notable Trades
87% win-rate political bettor
A proven 87% win-rate trader with nearly $279k profit is taking the No side in this Peru election market after already trading the same event across many markets, making this a follow-worthy political positioning signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $279k lifetime
- They trade across related markets with a strong record: 34 events, 72 markets, nearly $478k deployed
- Bought No at 84¢ after previously closing a Yes position here, showing a clear view change rather than routine profit-taking
$1,680 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate election trader
A high-volume political trader with an 87% win rate is rotating out of a prior Yes bet and now buying No, signaling a notable thesis change on this Peru election market.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up $274k across 193 resolved markets
- They closed an earlier Yes position and just put $3.1k into No, showing a clear view change rather than routine holding
- The wallet has traded 72 markets across 34 related events, suggesting an experienced political market specialist
$3,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate re-entry
An 87% win-rate serial political trader reopened a Yes position on this Peru election market after previously closing one, suggesting fresh conviction despite the price slipping after entry.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $273.7k across 193 settled bets.
- They trade across many related markets with a strong record: 72 markets across 34 events.
- They reopened a Yes position at 31¢ after previously closing one, signaling renewed conviction even as the market dipped to 28¢.
$1,238 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate election bettor
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is re-entering this Peru election market via the opposite side, effectively buying Yes around 22¢ after already trading it before.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $273k across nearly $3.1M invested.
- The trade was a Sell No at 78¢, which is the same as buying Yes at 22¢ in a liquid political market.
- They trade across many related markets — 34 events and 72 markets — which suggests a broader election thesis rather than a random one-off bet.
$4,683 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% win-rate re-entry
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is re-entering this Peru election market by effectively buying Yes around 22¢ after previously closing a Yes position, signaling renewed conviction on a liquid political market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $273.5k across 193 settled bets.
- The trade is a sell of No at 78¢, which is effectively a buy of Yes at 22¢ near the current 20-21¢ market.
- They previously closed a Yes position and are now re-entering, showing fresh conviction in a major election market after a sharp 1-day price drop.
$5,471 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
New whale buying dip
A 24-day-old wallet with repeated five-figure activity and positive early P&L made a fresh $9.5k directional bet in a liquid Peru election market by effectively buying Yes at 16¢ after a sharp price drop.
- This 24-day-old wallet has already triggered 27 large-bet alerts and is up about $9.3k early
- The trade effectively buys Yes at 16¢ after the market fell 25 points in a day
- A $9.5k position is meaningful versus roughly $17.4k of liquidity, showing real conviction
$9,454 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable new wallet buying dip
A 24-day-old wallet with repeated large bets and early profitability is making a fresh $14.4k bullish bet on a major Peru election market after a sharp price drop.
- This 24-day-old wallet has already made 24 other large flagged bets and is up $9.3k early
- Both trades were sells of No at 84-86¢, which translates to buying Yes around 14-16¢
- The market is liquid and active, but this bettor is stepping in after a 25.5-point one-day drop
$14,360 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
91% winner buys No
A bettor with a 91% win rate is taking a fresh cross-market position against López Aliaga at 82¢, even after a sharp move in a liquid Peru election market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades with 218 settled bets and $31k profit.
- They bought No at 82¢ while also trading a related Peru election market, suggesting a broader event view.
- The price dropped 13 points in under a minute, so this trade came during a fast repricing.
$1,527 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Sharp cluster buying No
Three wallets all moved into No on this Peru election market, led by two bettors with 87%-91% win rates and one very new repeat wallet, pushing price sharply lower.
- Two proven bettors with 87% and 91% win rates joined the same No side within minutes.
- The group put about $4.3k to work and knocked the price 13 points in under a minute.
- One wallet is only about 20 hours old but has already made 4 flagged large bets, suggesting fresh conviction.
$4,256 on No
87% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate put fresh money into No after a sharp move, making this a credible directional bet despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $272k across 193 settled bets.
- They placed a fresh $2.3k bet on No after trading 72 markets across 34 related events, showing a repeatable event-level approach.
- Bought at 58¢ after a fast 13-point drop, suggesting they still see value even after the move.
$2,339 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 97002302, $240,171
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 36132077, $61,984 (69% win rate)
- 0x1200...aaf4 — Outcome 36132077, $45,004
- 0x55d7...e99c — Outcome 36132077, $39,181
- 0x5e07...358a — Outcome 36132077, $12,074
- 0xf698...de39 — Outcome 36132077, $10,731 (100% win rate)
- 0xb727...cd6f — Outcome 36132077, $10,194 (33% win rate)
- 0xe3fe...de10 — Outcome 36132077, $8,365
- 0x59ce...86b7 — Outcome 36132077, $7,622
- 0xdb31...e5af — Outcome 97002302, $7,589
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