Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether the United States will agree to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,956 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, with recent alerts including an 88% winner buying No and sharp policy/event traders watching the market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,261.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics

Notable Trades

86% winner exits No

Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate sold out of No after a large Yes move, making this a follow-worthy directional signal despite being an exit rather than a fresh add.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up $1,054 lifetime.
  • They sold No after Yes jumped 21 points in a day, aligning with strong market momentum.
  • The trade is equivalent to buying Yes at 58¢, while the market is currently around 52¢.

$1,956 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial event trader

A profitable high-volume cross-market trader is fading the recent Yes surge by effectively buying No at 50¢.

  • This bettor has 1,101 resolved bets, wins 67% of them, and is up $271K lifetime.
  • They are fading a 21-point one-day move toward Yes by effectively buying No at 50¢.
  • This wallet has traded 107 markets across 68 events, showing a repeat cross-market strategy.

$1,439 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought Yes after a sharp move in a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 67% of resolved trades and is up $271k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 67 events and 106 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • Bought Yes at 50¢ as the market jumped 33 points in 24 hours.

$3,786 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable serial trader

Experienced cross-market trader with $812k lifetime profit is buying No, though the trade size and signal strength are modest.

  • This bettor is up $812k lifetime across 1,013 resolved trades.
  • They have traded 72 markets across 53 events, suggesting broad experience in event-linked markets.
  • Buying No at 73¢ implies a relatively conservative but high-conviction position against asset unfreezing by the deadline.

$1,612 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

88% winner buys NO

Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and $3.1M profit bought $7.7K of No on a politically sensitive market.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved bets and is up $3.1M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 161 events, with nearly $2.9M flagged in similar activity.
  • A $7.7K No buy at 78¢ signals conviction that asset unfreezing is unlikely.

$7,687 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Sharp serial policy bettor

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate and +$409k lifetime P&L bought No at 70¢ on a policy market.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $409k lifetime.
  • They are a highly active cross-market trader, with over $2.0M deployed across 641 markets.
  • Buying No at 70¢ goes with recent market momentum, with Yes down 15.5 points over the past week.

$1,382 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Sharp serial cross-market bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 82% resolved win rate and $543k profit bought No on a foreign-policy market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $543k lifetime.
  • They are a serious cross-market trader, with $2.4M deployed across 146 related markets.
  • Buying No at 70¢ adds to a market that has already moved toward No over the past week.

$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc040...beac Yes, $47,731 (45% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 No, $36,780 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x74bf...2a6e Yes, $20,970 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xf284...b9f9 No, $17,106 (88% win rate)
  5. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $11,601 (63% win rate)
  6. 0xbf4d...33ed Yes, $11,550 (76% win rate)
  7. 0xf491...ee5e No, $9,992 (80% win rate)
  8. 0x4158...ce9f Yes, $8,593 (40% win rate)
  9. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $7,342 (47% win rate)
  10. 0x80a0...5708 Yes, $5,560 (36% win rate)

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Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

17dWhat Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?$19,261 tracked7 signalsStrait of HormuzOilGeopoliticsIranPoliticsIran CeasefireUraniumTrumpU.S. x IranNegotiation Topics
Yes
53¢
No
48¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Price History — “Yes
63¢
39¢
16¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

3h ago

$1,956 on Yes at 58¢

58¢53¢5¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

3h ago

$1,439 on No at 50¢

50¢48¢2¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

12h ago

$3,786 on Yes at 50¢

50¢53¢3¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

2d ago

$1,612 on No at 73¢

73¢48¢25¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

3d ago

$7,687 on No at 78¢

78¢48¢30¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

6d ago

$1,382 on No at 70¢

70¢48¢22¢

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

10d ago

$1,400 on No at 70¢

70¢48¢22¢

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