Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,619.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Serial 92% bettor adds to No
A serial cross-market bettor with a 92% historical win rate is adding $3,547 to an existing No position, though the edge over average entry odds is modest.
- This bettor has won 92% of 86 resolved positions across 37 events and 49 markets.
- They are adding $3,547 to an existing No position at 88¢, reinforcing a bearish view on an agreement by August 15.
- No is already priced at 88%, so the trade reflects conviction but offers limited upside unless the market is mispriced.
$3,547 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Proven cross-market bettor buys No
A highly experienced bettor with 348 resolved trades and a strong edge is taking a fresh No position in this diplomatic-outcome market.
- This bettor wins 76% of 348 resolved trades and has earned $915,918.
- The trader has identified positions across 83 events and 224 markets, suggesting broad experience rather than a one-off wager.
- A $1,698 No bet at 74¢ aligns with the current 73% market probability while expressing confidence the agreement will not occur.
$1,698 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Bettor scaling into a sharp No breakout
A repeat bettor added substantially to an existing No position as No broke sharply above its prior price range in a relatively thin market.
- No surged roughly 43 percentage points beyond its prior observed range, signaling a major repricing toward failure of an agreement.
- The bettor added $1,374 to an existing No position, bringing total invested on No to about $3,875.
- The market has only $5,947 in liquidity, so this trade is meaningful relative to available depth despite the bettor’s limited seven-bet record.
$1,374 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 71291515, $4,329 (69% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 71291515, $4,091
- 0xa9ac...c5d1 — Outcome 71291515, $3,264 (33% win rate)
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Outcome 71291515, $2,510 (16% win rate)
- 0xbf96...9942 — Outcome 71291515, $2,475 (79% win rate)
- 0xcca9...4c9f — Outcome 71291515, $2,417 (67% win rate)
- 0xb5cd...6055 — Outcome 71291515, $1,605
- 0xa5fd...36d1 — Outcome 71291515, $999 (38% win rate)
- 0xa837...34ea — Outcome 71291515, $800
- 0x6404...f250 — Outcome 71291515, $800 (68% win rate)
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Iranian blockade will persist
Covers 6 related markets
