Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,619.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Serial 92% bettor adds to No

A serial cross-market bettor with a 92% historical win rate is adding $3,547 to an existing No position, though the edge over average entry odds is modest.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 86 resolved positions across 37 events and 49 markets.
  • They are adding $3,547 to an existing No position at 88¢, reinforcing a bearish view on an agreement by August 15.
  • No is already priced at 88%, so the trade reflects conviction but offers limited upside unless the market is mispriced.

$3,547 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Proven cross-market bettor buys No

A highly experienced bettor with 348 resolved trades and a strong edge is taking a fresh No position in this diplomatic-outcome market.

  • This bettor wins 76% of 348 resolved trades and has earned $915,918.
  • The trader has identified positions across 83 events and 224 markets, suggesting broad experience rather than a one-off wager.
  • A $1,698 No bet at 74¢ aligns with the current 73% market probability while expressing confidence the agreement will not occur.

$1,698 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Bettor scaling into a sharp No breakout

A repeat bettor added substantially to an existing No position as No broke sharply above its prior price range in a relatively thin market.

  • No surged roughly 43 percentage points beyond its prior observed range, signaling a major repricing toward failure of an agreement.
  • The bettor added $1,374 to an existing No position, bringing total invested on No to about $3,875.
  • The market has only $5,947 in liquidity, so this trade is meaningful relative to available depth despite the bettor’s limited seven-bet record.

$1,374 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 71291515, $4,329 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 71291515, $4,091
  3. 0xa9ac...c5d1 Outcome 71291515, $3,264 (33% win rate)
  4. 0xdbd0...8c1c Outcome 71291515, $2,510 (16% win rate)
  5. 0xbf96...9942 Outcome 71291515, $2,475 (79% win rate)
  6. 0xcca9...4c9f Outcome 71291515, $2,417 (67% win rate)
  7. 0xb5cd...6055 Outcome 71291515, $1,605
  8. 0xa5fd...36d1 Outcome 71291515, $999 (38% win rate)
  9. 0xa837...34ea Outcome 71291515, $800
  10. 0x6404...f250 Outcome 71291515, $800 (68% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iranian blockade will persist

Covers 6 related markets

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

ResolvedIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?$6,619 tracked3 signalsIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
102¢
80¢
58¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

10d ago

$3,547 on No at 88¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

12d ago

$1,698 on No at 74¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

13d ago

$1,374 on No at 74¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iranian blockade will persist
Wallet_0x9e729 trades 6 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…