Part of: Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $182,544.

Categories: Politics, Main Election, Global Elections, Israel, Elections, netanyahu, Bennett, Likud, Israel Election

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet funded cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder are associated with this market, making the coordinated $5,180 cluster notable despite the trader's lack of clear win-rate edge over entry odds.

  • Seven wallets share a funder, with $5,180 in combined market activity.
  • This trader bought No at 74¢; their 66% win rate is not clearly above their average winning price of 82%.
  • The wallet has a long trading history and is up $266,444 lifetime, though on $18.2M invested.

$1,480 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

93% winner adding to No

A consistently profitable bettor with 120 resolved positions added to an existing No position, buying at 71¢.

  • This bettor has won 112 of 120 resolved positions and is up $68,171.
  • They added $3,085 to an existing No position at 71¢ and have traded across 52 events.

$3,085 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable bettor adds to No

A sizable seven-wallet No cluster includes a highly profitable bettor adding to an existing position, though a larger opposing Yes cluster makes the overall signal contested.

  • Seven wallets bought No for $54,720; one has a 73% win rate across 51 resolved bets and over $1M in reported profit.
  • Several traders are adding to substantial existing No positions, but a larger 13-wallet Yes cluster also appeared, so the direction is contested.

$27,907 on No

25-wallet Yes surge with sharp bettors

A large one-sided Yes wave across 25 wallets coincided with a 45-point price jump, and the flow includes a profitable bettor with a strong historical edge.

  • 25 wallets bought Yes for about $150,000 as the market price jumped roughly 45 percentage points.
  • A bettor in the flow has an 81% win rate across 361 resolved bets and has earned over $2.4 million.
  • The market saw a 45x volume spike, though current odds are already around 80¢.

$150,072 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,464,141
  2. 0x6575...b198 — No, $483,085 (75% win rate)
  3. 0x7447...a16d — No, $82,847 (53% win rate)
  4. 0x05f6...25a1 — No, $63,937 (67% win rate)
  5. 0x23d8...0288 — No, $57,863 (81% win rate)
  6. 0xecb1...5da3 — No, $45,000 (50% win rate)
  7. 0xc301...66aa — No, $44,089 (71% win rate)
  8. 0x629b...995a — Yes, $39,589 (45% win rate)
  9. 0x6bab...1292 — No, $37,776 (57% win rate)
  10. 0x629c...6c01 — No, $30,000 (47% win rate)

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Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Israeli Legislative Election Winner$182,544 tracked4 signalsPoliticsMain ElectionGlobal ElectionsIsraelElectionsnetanyahuBennettLikudIsrael Election
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.

Price History — “Yes”
102¢
91¢
80¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

2026-10-27 05:36 UTC

$1,480 on No at 74¢

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

2026-10-27 04:27 UTC

$3,085 on No at 71¢

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

2026-10-27 21:09 UTC

$27,907 on No at 68¢

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

2026-10-27 20:25 UTC

$150,072 on Yes at 81¢

81¢→100¢↑19¢

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