Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves “Yes” if both countries officially announce an agreement or if credible reporting confirms a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $3,700 in smart money activity across 1 signal, with recent alerts leaning bearish on a ceasefire outcome.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,284.

Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy

Notable Trades

Cross-market ceasefire bear

A modestly profitable wallet is building a cross-market Russia-Ukraine thesis, with this $3.7k No buy nearly twice the market’s recent daily volume.

  • This bettor has a profitable track record, up $2.2k across 59 resolved bets.
  • They have placed $7.4k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader view on the Russia-Ukraine outcome.
  • This $3.7k No buy was nearly 2x the market’s recent 24h volume, a sizable bet in a quiet market.

$3,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

93% winner buying No

A highly experienced winning wallet is buying No in a thin Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market, with cross-market positioning and a bet nearly equal to daily volume.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 2,085 resolved bets and is up $34k lifetime.
  • The $1.6k No buy equals 85% of this market’s 24h volume, a large move for a quiet market.
  • They have $7.6k positioned across related ceasefire markets, suggesting a broader No thesis.

$1,584 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $8,073 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xbb98...6d3c No, $4,210 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x5cd5...ac33 No, $3,805 (94% win rate)
  4. 0x6ffa...b3c4 Yes, $3,025
  5. 0x0845...6b6f Yes, $2,288 (69% win rate)
  6. 0x38f5...6824 Yes, $2,222 (44% win rate)
  7. 0xe234...304a No, $2,000 (69% win rate)
  8. 0xe97c...2a99 No, $1,237 (71% win rate)
  9. 0x45ae...9e02 No, $1,184 (86% win rate)
  10. 0x122c...fbed Yes, $1,173 (56% win rate)

Related Theses

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No Ukraine ceasefire in 2026

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No Ukraine ceasefire before September

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No Ukraine ceasefire in 2026

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

59dRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$5,284 tracked2 signalsUkraine Peace DealPoliticsUkraineRussiaputinGeopoliticszelenskyTrumpzelenskyy
Yes
13¢
No
88¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
90¢
87¢
84¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

6d ago

$3,700 on No at 88¢

88¢88¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

10d ago

$1,584 on No at 88¢

88¢88¢

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