Part of: Colombia Presidential Election
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
This prediction market asks whether Abelardo de la Espriella will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election, including a possible second-round runoff on June 21, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,160 in smart money activity and 1 signal, with recent alerts showing an 87% win-rate election bettor buying NO. The market resolves to the winning listed candidate, or to “Other” if the result is not known by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,065.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, World, World Elections, Colombia Election, Colombia, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
87% win-rate election trader
Elite 87% win-rate cross-market trader is adding a fresh No bet within a broad 16-market Colombia election thesis despite meaningful recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $347,873 lifetime.
- They are active across 16 markets in this same election, suggesting a broad Colombia 2026 thesis.
- Buying No at 58¢ goes against a 13-point weekly move toward Yes.
$1,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% election bettor buys NO
Proven 87% win-rate wallet with large lifetime profits is taking a cross-market Colombian election thesis by buying No at 63¢.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $348K lifetime.
- They are active across 16 markets in this same election, with $31.6K positioned around one thesis.
- Buying No at 63¢ means they are fading a candidate whose Yes price is up 9 points this week.
$1,260 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,166
87% win-rate election specialist
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is active across 16 related Colombian election markets, and this trade adds a fresh NO position near current market price in a major politics market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $350,768 lifetime
- They have traded 16 markets tied to this same election event, suggesting a broader election thesis
- This is a fresh NO buy at 74¢ in a liquid politics market, not simple profit-taking
$1,479 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $246,342
- 0x682d...31ab — No, $118,446 (81% win rate)
- 0x21c0...4827 — Yes, $21,719
- 0x784f...5df9 — No, $20,054 (87% win rate)
- 0x3dca...3c13 — Yes, $19,646 (81% win rate)
- 0x639d...4777 — Yes, $19,636
- 0xde97...e43e — Yes, $17,284
- 0xcb25...5ab5 — Yes, $17,232
- 0xe9fe...3da3 — Yes, $14,793
- 0x38e5...95e7 — Yes, $14,161 (79% win rate)
Related Theses
De la Espriella loses Colombia
Covers 16 related markets
Starmer survives past June 2026
Covers 1 related market
