Part of: Colombia Presidential Election
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $307,713.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, World, World Elections, Colombia Election, Colombia, Main Election, Macro Election 1, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
75% winner buying favorite
Surface due to a proven profitable wallet with a 75% resolved-bet win rate buying Yes despite only a modest single-signal alert.
- This bettor has won 75% of 24 resolved bets and is up $3.3K lifetime.
- They bought $2K of Yes at 84¢, adding conviction to a high-probability political outcome.
- Their past wins came at much lower average odds, suggesting they have beaten market prices before.
$1,976 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
75% winner buying favorite
Surface due to a proven profitable wallet with a 75% resolved-bet win rate buying Yes despite only a modest single-signal alert.
- This bettor has won 75% of 24 resolved bets and is up $3.3K lifetime.
- They bought $2K of Yes at 84¢, adding conviction to a high-probability political outcome.
- Their past wins came at much lower average odds, suggesting they have beaten market prices before.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable wallets fade favorite
Three profitable, active wallets are moving against the favorite in a major Colombian election market, with one serial cross-market trader and recent price momentum supporting the No side.
- Three wallets with positive lifetime profits are all taking the No side, totaling about $5,016.
- One bettor is a serial cross-market trader across 72 events with a 67% win rate.
- The market has already moved against Yes by 8 points in 24 hours, matching this No-side flow.
$5,016 on No
82% winner buys NO
Sharp 82% lifetime wallet with positive P&L is re-entering a No position while also trading across three related Colombian election markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $77k lifetime.
- They have put about $30k across 3 related election markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Bought No at 13¢, a contrarian bet against the current 86% Yes price.
$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable cluster buying NO
High-scoring funded-wallet cluster is taking the contrarian No side, backed by a wallet with a perfect 7-for-7 resolved record and large lifetime profit.
- This bettor is 7-for-7 on resolved bets and is up $146k lifetime.
- A 3-wallet funded cluster is behind the activity, with this wallet flagged 16 times historically.
- Buying No at 15¢ is a contrarian fade of the 84% favorite in a major political market.
$1,870 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
95% serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 95% resolved-bet win record and positive lifetime P&L bought $3.6k of Yes at 85¢.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $18.3k lifetime.
- They have traded across 557 events, suggesting a broad repeatable strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought $3.6k of Yes at 85¢ after the market slipped 4% this week.
$3,607 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Sharp bettor fading favorite
A proven profitable wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win rate is taking a contrarian No position against the 88% favorite.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $323,702 lifetime.
- They are effectively buying No at 12¢ against an 88¢ favorite, a high-upside contrarian position.
- This wallet is a serial cross-market trader across 25 events with $394,815 in tracked activity.
$1,533 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable new whale re-entering
A repeat new-wallet whale with positive early P&L is re-entering Yes with $17.2k during a 69.5x volume spike, suggesting continued conviction despite the high 87¢ entry.
- This 22-day-old wallet has already had 17 large-bet flags and is up $9.5k early.
- They previously bought Yes around 65¢, closed it, and are now putting $17.2k back in near 87¢.
- Market volume is surging 69.5x above its historical average, supporting the momentum behind this trade.
$17,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable new whale re-entering Yes
A profitable 22-day-old repeat whale is re-entering a large Yes position on a plausible political market, with a 17.9x volume spike adding support.
- This 22-day-old wallet is already up $9.5K and has been flagged 14 times for large bets.
- The trader bought $14.2K of Yes near 87¢ after previously entering this same side around 65¢.
- Market volume spiked 17.9x above its historical average during this move.
$14,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
82% winner buys NO
Sharp 82% lifetime wallet with positive P&L is re-entering a No position while also trading across three related Colombian election markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $77k lifetime.
- They have put about $30k across 3 related election markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Bought No at 13¢, a contrarian bet against the current 86% Yes price.
$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 93119283, $1,164,829
- 0x16c1...4635 — Outcome 93119283, $279,628
- 0xe778...6da6 — Outcome 93119283, $31,702
- 0x37ab...b7a8 — Outcome 93119283, $29,505
- 0x3cae...9060 — Outcome 93119283, $21,079
- 0x1ea0...fab9 — Outcome 93119283, $20,721
- 0xc9d0...2ed4 — Outcome 93119283, $16,958
- 0x784f...5df9 — Outcome 93119283, $16,035 (86% win rate)
- 0x9c37...f507 — Outcome 93119283, $14,967
- 0x4c8c...e36f — Outcome 93119283, $12,469 (100% win rate)
Related Theses
Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency
Covers 2 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
Sánchez Palomino won't win
Covers 14 related markets
Neither Chong nor Oh wins
Covers 2 related markets
Hormuz lift before June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal after April 22
Covers 9 related markets
Iran deal before June
Covers 4 related markets
Iran uranium markets mispriced
Covers 3 related markets
