Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

23 smart money signals detected, totaling $184,871.

Categories: Politics, World Elections, Global Elections, Elections, Hungary Election, Hungary

Notable Trades

98% win-rate political bettor

A serial cross-market trader with a 98% win rate bought into a fast-rising Hungarian election market, making this worth tracking despite the modest ticket size.

  • This bettor wins 98% of resolved markets with 172 wins in 175 and has traded $3.6M across 178 markets.
  • They bought Yes at 89¢ while this market has surged 17 points in a day, showing they are still willing to pay up for this outcome.
  • The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like a sharp trader following a thesis than a random punt in a thin market.

$4,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%

97% win-rate political bettor

A serial cross-market political trader with a 97% win rate put $6.8k into TISZA Yes despite already rich pricing, making this wallet worth tracking even though the single-trade signal is modest.

  • This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with 185 wins and 191 total settled bets.
  • They have traded 202 markets across 151 events for over $1.5M, which makes this a proven repeat operator rather than a random whale.
  • They bought TISZA Yes around 90¢, signaling confidence even after the market had already rallied hard.

$6,756 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%

97% win-rate political trader

A serial cross-market political trader with a 97% win rate is buying into strong momentum on a major Hungary election market, making this worth tracking despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with $65k profit across 191 settled positions.
  • They trade heavily across related events — 150 events and 201 markets suggest a repeatable edge, not a one-off bet.
  • They bought at 90¢ while this market is already surging, up 15 points in a day and nearly 20 points in a week.

$2,937 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%

3-wallet contrarian cluster

Three wallets piled into the same anti-TISZA position for nearly $9.6k while the market is surging toward 84%, a notable coordinated contrarian bet despite mixed wallet quality.

  • Three wallets all bet against TISZA at about 16¢, putting nearly $9.6k on the same side within minutes.
  • The market has jumped 10.5 points in a day and 15 points in a week, so this is a clear bet against strong recent momentum.
  • One wallet is a repeat large new account with over $9.3k in flagged bets, adding conviction even though the cluster's past win rates are mixed.

$9,570 on No

New wallet backing TISZA

A brand-new wallet has repeatedly made sizable bets on this Hungarian election event and just bought TISZA at 85¢ into a strong upward move, which is notable despite lacking a proven track record.

  • This wallet is less than 1 day old and has already made 4 flagged bets totaling $11.6k
  • The bettor is building across 2 related Hungary election markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
  • They bought at 85¢ while the market is up 10.5 points in a day, showing willingness to pay up for conviction

$1,818 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%

98% win-rate political bettor

A serial cross-market bettor with a 98% win rate bought TISZA Yes at 86¢ in an active political market that has already been moving sharply higher.

  • This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades, with 172 wins and nearly $59k in profit
  • They have traded 178 markets across 134 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought TISZA Yes at 86¢ while the market is already up 10.5 points in a day, reinforcing the bullish move

$4,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%

85% winner fading favorite

A highly profitable political trader from a 12-wallet funded cluster sold the favorite at 85¢, which translates into a buyable No position at 15¢.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.26M lifetime across more than 1,000 bets.
  • This wallet is part of a 12-wallet funded cluster that has already deployed $25k together, suggesting coordinated conviction.
  • The trade sold Yes at 85¢, which equals buying No at 15¢ while the market has already surged 11 points in a day.

$1,689 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Repeat new-wallet whale

A 6-day-old wallet has repeatedly made large bets across the platform and just put $5,000 into a liquid politics market despite no resolved history yet, which is notable enough to monitor as a high-conviction new bettor.

  • A 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 13 large-bet alerts, with $51.8k flagged in total
  • This is a fresh $5,000 buy in a major politics market, showing clear conviction rather than routine trading
  • They paid 84¢ while the market is now 82¢, so copying only makes sense on a pullback near the trader's entry

$5,000 on Yes

98% win-rate political bettor

A serial cross-market trader with a 98% win rate just bought Yes in a major Hungary election market, making this a track-record-driven signal worth surfacing despite modest size.

  • This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades with 172 wins and only 3 losses
  • They have placed $3.6M across 178 markets, so this looks like a repeatable strategy rather than a one-off punt
  • They bought Yes at 84¢ in a fast-rising election market that is up 14.5 points over the past week

$2,990 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%

85% winner in 12-wallet cluster

A highly profitable serial political trader with an 85% win rate is buying into a rising election market, and the wallet is part of a 12-wallet funded cluster that has deployed over $9k on this event.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.26M lifetime across more than 1,000 bets
  • 12 wallets funded by the same source have put about $9.1k into this event, which points to coordinated conviction
  • They bought Yes at 78¢ in a market that has already climbed 12 points in a week and now trades around 80¢

$1,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 11115278, $1,536,000
  2. 0xca76...28b3 Outcome 11115278, $582,026 (76% win rate)
  3. 0xe349...db20 Outcome 61963573, $62,064
  4. 0x8c76...06ac Outcome 61963573, $55,411 (82% win rate)
  5. 0x93bf...451c Outcome 11115278, $51,428 (25% win rate)
  6. 0xd6db...aca3 Outcome 11115278, $43,921
  7. 0xdf04...73ec Outcome 11115278, $33,697
  8. 0x7f9b...1743 Outcome 11115278, $32,668 (61% win rate)
  9. 0x7bb2...682c Outcome 61963573, $25,000 (67% win rate)
  10. 0x4e26...4355 Outcome 61963573, $24,204

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Resolved$184,871 tracked23 signalsPoliticsWorld ElectionsGlobal ElectionsElectionsHungary ElectionHungary

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Price History — “Yes
102¢
85¢
67¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

16h ago

$4,450 on Yes at 89¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

17h ago

$6,756 on Yes at 90¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

17h ago

$2,937 on Yes at 90¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

18h ago

$9,570 on No at 16¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

18h ago

$1,818 on Yes at 85¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

18h ago

$4,300 on Yes at 86¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

19h ago

$1,689 on No at 15¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

1d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 84¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

1d ago

$2,990 on Yes at 84¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

1d ago

$1,550 on Yes at 78¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

1d ago

$3,800 on Yes at 76¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

1d ago

$13,085 on Yes at 75¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

1d ago

$3,700 on Yes at 74¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

1d ago

$8,559 on Yes at 75¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

1d ago

$1,679 on Yes at 75¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

1d ago

$20,585 on Yes at 76¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

2d ago

$20,392 on Yes at 75¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

2d ago

$10,960 on Yes at 77¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

3d ago

$4,617 on Yes at 78¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

3d ago

$25,238 on Yes at 77¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

4d ago

$11,000 on Yes at 80¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

4d ago

$7,903 on Yes at 80¢

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

9d ago

$12,293 on Yes at 70¢

Related Theses