Part of: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,048.
Categories: houthi, traffic, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, shipping, Politics, cape of good hope, Regional Spillover, red sea, Houthis, Yemen
Notable Trades
93% winner trimming Yes
A highly successful serial trader is exiting a large Yes position, creating a potentially meaningful bearish signal despite the trade likely being partial position management.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and is up $138,507.
- The wallet sold $1,048 of Yes while already holding $11,038, signaling reduced confidence in the market reaching closure conditions.
- The wallet belongs to a 19-wallet funded cluster, adding weight to the directional move toward No.
$1,048 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Yes, $63,871 (85% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Yes, $62,153 (73% win rate)
- 0xa5fd...36d1 — Yes, $10,000 (38% win rate)
- 0x5109...5e9c — Yes, $9,576 (40% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $6,564 (76% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Yes, $5,325 (41% win rate)
- 0x5082...049d — Yes, $4,500 (51% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — Yes, $4,444 (62% win rate)
- 0x0dc5...a303 — Yes, $4,094 (32% win rate)
- 0x55db...2031 — Yes, $4,038 (55% win rate)
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